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Government shutdowns

Shutdowns Can Be a Double-Edged Sword for Party in Power

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

As the government prepares to enter a partial shutdown, Democrats and Republicans alike are weighing the potential political fallout. History suggests that a shutdown can have unexpected consequences, with the party in power often experiencing a shift in public perception and voter sentiment. A close look at past shutdowns reveals a complex picture, with some resulting in significant losses for the party that initiated the shutdown, while others had little to no electoral impact. Rep. Steve Israel, a veteran of the 2013 shutdown, notes that the environment can change completely over time, and the party expected to be punished can end up triumphant in the next election.

Key Takeaways:

  • During the 2013 shutdown, the Republican Party brand hit historical lows, but Republicans gained more than a dozen House seats and nine Senate seats in the 2014 elections, repudiating President Barack Obama.
  • The 1995-1996 shutdown, led by Republicans, helped President Bill Clinton burnish his image as a reasonable dealmaker and eased his reelection victory, while Republicans shored up their congressional majorities in the November elections.
  • In 2019, Trump became the only president to politically lose a shutdown, but Democrats expected big gains in the next election, which ultimately saw House Democrats lose more than 10 seats despite Joe Biden's win in the popular election.
  • Democrats believe this shutdown will play out differently due to Trump's plummeting popularity, citing a Washington Post-Ipsos poll showing voters opposed his signature tariff policy by 30 percentage points.
  • Rep. Steve Israel notes that fighting for health care policies is "ground worth fighting for, for Democrats."
  • Matt Gorman, a top adviser at the National Republican Congressional Committee, predicts that Democrats will suffer if the government shuts down due to being seen as instigating the fight.
  • A brief shutdown in 2018 led by Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-New York) had a brief negative impact, but Democrats gained 40 seats and the House majority in the subsequent midterm elections.

Statistics:

  • 2013: Republicans shut down the government, leading to a historical low for the party brand.
  • 2014: Republicans gained more than a dozen House seats and nine Senate seats.
  • 1995-1996: Republicans shut down the government, leading to President Bill Clinton's image as a reasonable dealmaker and eventual reelection victory.
  • 2019: House Democrats lost more than 10 seats in the election cycle despite Joe Biden's win in the popular election.
  • 30 percentage points: Voters oppose Trump's signature tariff policy (Washington Post-Ipsos poll).
  • 19 points: Trump's approval on the economy is below water (Washington Post-Ipsos poll).

Sources:

  • The Washington Post
  • Ipsos poll
  • New York Times
  • Politico
  • Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY)
  • Matt Gorman (NRCC adviser)
  • Josh Huder (Georgetown University's Government Affairs Institute)

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