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Adams, Eric

Cuomo Inches Closer to Head-to-Head Showdown Against Mamdani

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

With Mayor Eric Adams exiting the New York City mayoral race, Andrew Cuomo, the former governor running as an independent, is now a significant contender against Zohran Mamdani. Adams' decision has raised the stakes for Cuomo, who could potentially face off against Mamdani in a head-to-head matchup. Anti-Mamdani forces are pressuring Curtis Sliwa, the Republican nominee, to drop out of the race, with some prominent figures publicly urging him to do so.

Key Takeaways:

  • Cuomo's chances of winning have increased significantly following Adams' exit, with polls showing a narrow margin between him and Mamdani in a one-on-one election.
  • A Siena University-New York Times survey found Mamdani leading with 48% support among likely voters, compared to Cuomo's 44% in a one-on-one election.
  • Sliwa has shown no willingness to drop out of the race, despite pressure from anti-Mamdani forces, with his campaign saying, "Curtis Sliwa is the only candidate who can defeat Mamdani."
  • Sliwa's campaign currently has $3.4 million in cash on hand, while Cuomo has $1.6 million, and Mamdani has hit the fundraising cap of $8 million.
  • Sliwa has been criticized by President Donald Trump for his love of cats and his interest in making cats the official pets of Gracie Mansion, but has maintained a loyal following, with 15% of likely voters in the Siena poll voting for him.
  • Pollster Adam Carlson noted that 71% of Sliwa voters would not consider voting for Cuomo if Sliwa dropped out of the race, suggesting that Sliwa's supporters are loyal but may be unwilling to support Cuomo.

Statistics:

  • Mamdani has a reported 48% support among likely voters in a Siena University-New York Times survey.
  • Cuomo has 44% support among likely voters in the same survey.
  • Sliwa has 27% of the vote in the 2021 election.
  • Sliwa's campaign has $3.4 million in cash on hand.
  • Cuomo's campaign has $1.6 million in cash on hand.
  • Mamdani's campaign has hit the fundraising cap of $8 million.
  • 71% of Sliwa voters would not consider voting for Cuomo if Sliwa dropped out of the race.

Sources:

  • Gothamist: "Mayor Adams to drop out of NYC mayoral race following scandal-plagued tenure at City Hall"
  • Twitter: Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) and Chien Kwok (@chien_kwok)
  • New York Times: "Siena University-New York Times survey" and "Mamdani opposition attack ads"
  • Gothamist: Interview with John Catsimatidis

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