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Emerson College

Virginia Governor's Race Shifts in Favor of Democrat Abigail Spanberger

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger has widened her lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in the Virginia governor's race, according to a recent Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey. Since January, Spanberger has gained significant momentum, particularly among independent, male, and younger voters. Spanberger's support has increased from 42% to 52%, while Earle-Sears has only seen a 1-point gain, from 41% to 42%.

Key Takeaways:

  • Spanberger has a 10-point lead over Earle-Sears, according to the Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey.
  • Independent voters support Spanberger by a 19-point margin, a reversal from January when they favored Earle-Sears by 4 points.
  • The male vote, which traditionally favors the Republican candidate, is now evenly split, with 46% supporting each candidate.
  • Spanberger has consolidated support among younger Virginians, with a 27-point lead among voters under 50 (59% to 32%).
  • Earle-Sears has not gained significant support among older voters, with a 2-point decrease in approval from 43% to 41% among voters 50 and older.
  • Spanberger holds a 51% favorability rating, compared to 42% for Earle-Sears.
  • Gov. Glenn Youngkin maintains a 46% approval rating, but Lieut. Governor Earle-Sears does not benefit from it, with only 11% of voters who approve of Youngkin planning to vote for Earle-Sears.
  • The economy (35%), threats to democracy (20%), education (10%), and health care (9%) are the top issues shaping voters' decisions.

Statistics:

  • Spanberger's support increased from 42% to 52% between January and the present.
  • Earle-Sears's support remained at 41% in January, with a 1-point increase to 42% in the present.
  • Independent voters support Spanberger by a 19-point margin (53% to 34%).
  • The male vote is now evenly split, with 46% supporting each candidate.
  • Spanberger has a 27-point lead among voters under 50 (59% to 32%).
  • Earle-Sears has a 2-point decrease in approval among voters 50 and older (41% to 47%).
  • Spanberger holds a 9-point favorability advantage over Earle-Sears (51% to 42%).
  • Gov. Glenn Youngkin maintains a 46% approval rating.
  • 79% of voters cited the economy as a very important issue.
  • 78% of voters cited education as a very important issue.
  • 71% of voters cited health care as a very important issue.
  • 66% of voters cited threats to democracy as a very important issue.
  • 64% of voters cited housing affordability as a very important issue.

Sources:

  • Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey
  • https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TbnQANegQCaidovgo12aa7Mzwh0lhG9A/edit?gid=408658372
  • Emerson College Polling press release

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