Trump's Middle East Peace Deal: A Calculated Use of Force and Economic Pressure
As President Donald Trump mediated the Israel-Hamas ceasefire after over two years of conflict, he may have demonstrated the potential of his approach in resolving international conflicts. The release of all living hostages by Hamas and Israel's agreement to withdraw from Gaza may be the first tangible outcome of Trump's conflict resolution abilities. However, the implementation of Trump's 20-point agenda for the resolution of the conflict leaves many key questions unanswered, including the future of governance in Gaza, Israel's full withdrawal, and the two-state solution.
Key Takeaways:
- Trump's use of raw state power, economic, and military pressure alongside the opportunity for an off-ramp may have opened doors in the toughest situations, as seen in the Israel-Hamas ceasefire.
- The deal remains more favourable to Israel, with the IDF remaining inside Gaza and the possibility of Israel's military returning if Hamas fails to live by the agreed terms of the ceasefire.
- Israel's decision to withdraw from Gaza, especially Gaza City, may be a lifeline to the residual Hamas contingents as well as Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu politically.
- Trump's core impulses are likely driven by a long-term economic game plan for the Middle East, which includes Gaza and a possible peace summit at Sharm el-Sheikh.
- The calculated use of force is a natural follow-up action for Trump, who has made baseline tariffs on countries appear as the new normal.
- Steve Witkoff, Trump's billionaire friend and Middle East envoy, has added to the incentive and momentum behind the Middle East peace process.
- The difference in approach between Trump and Joe Biden, who allowed Netanyahu to operate with a long leash, has given Trump an opportunity to coerce both Netanyahu and Hamas.
- Netanyahu's surprise attack on Hamas officials in Doha provided Trump with the opportunity to balance power, politics, and economics to achieve his goals.
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Statistics:
- The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has been in place for over two years.
- 200 personnel-strong US force is being deployed to monitor the implementation of the Gaza ceasefire.
- Donald Trump has a 20-point agenda for the resolution of the conflict, which includes the implementation of a two-state solution and Israel's full withdrawal from Gaza.
- Israel's military has remained inside Gaza with the possibility of returning if Hamas fails to live by the agreed terms of the ceasefire.
Sources:
- Vivek Mishra, Visiting Fellow, ORF America and Deputy Director, Strategic Studies Programme, ORF
- Donald Trump's 20-point agenda for the resolution of the conflict
- Trump's speech at Sharm el-Sheikh peace summit