Africa's Coup Problem: Understanding the Rise of Military Takeovers

The recent military takeover in Madagascar on October 14, 2025, highlights the ongoing coup crisis in Africa, where the continent has seen 10 successful coups across eight countries since 2020. This phenomenon indicates that Africa's coup problem is no longer limited to a single region but has become a continental issue. The events in Madagascar are a signal that the continent's coup problem is escalating, raising questions about the reasons behind the success of some coups and the failure of others.

Key Takeaways:

• The coup in Madagascar is the second successful coup on the continent since 2020, outside of the West African region.
• The military takeover in Madagascar ticks many of the boxes associated with determining coup success, including a government insider-led coup, senior military officers in the capital, and nonviolent mobilization.
• The events in Madagascar have been accompanied by mass protests and the involvement of government elites and senior officers.
• The coup's success also depends on the momentum of events, which is influenced by factors such as the identity, location, and resources of the coup plotters.
• The data compiled by our research team suggests that coups are most likely to succeed in countries where there is a history of successful coups, government insider-led coups, and pro-coup mass mobilization.
• The international community's role in Africa's coup crisis is a complex issue. Some argue that international pressure to respect democratic norms and human rights has weakened, allowing authoritarian governments to stay in power longer.
• The latest data from our research team indicates that military actors have been involved in eight coups across seven countries in Africa since 2020.
• Scholars have identified several factors contributing to Africa's coup problem, including poverty, ethnicity, and history of post-colonial conflicts.