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Disarmament

Gaza Ceasefire Deal: Uncertainty Surrounds Governance and Disarmament

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

As the US-brokered deal to establish a ceasefire in Gaza nears completion, concerns remain over the governance and disarmament of the coastal territory. The first stage of the deal has been largely implemented, but questions persist about the next phase, which includes the establishment of a new governing mechanism and the disarmament of Hamas.

Key Takeaways:

  • The US-brokered deal stipulates that Gaza will be governed by a temporary technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee, responsible for managing public services and municipalities.
  • The committee will consist of qualified Palestinians and international experts, operating under the supervision of the "Board of Peace" headed and chaired by US President Donald Trump.
  • The Board of Peace will be responsible for setting the framework and handling funding for Gaza's redevelopment until the Palestinian Authority can "securely and effectively take back control of Gaza."
  • Hamas has expressed willingness to set aside its weapons symbolically, but reserves the right to rearm or keep certain weapons themselves.
  • The disarmament process could take considerable time, especially if Israel insists on the surrender of all weapons, including small arms.
  • The International Stabilization Force (ISF) will deploy in Gaza as an "internal security solution," but details about its participating countries and mandate remain unclear.
  • Israel has agreed to refrain from occupying or annexing Gaza, and will likely continue conducting targeted airstrikes against Hamas.
  • The reopening of the Rafah crossing for passengers and humanitarian aid entry are included in the ceasefire plan, with trucks carrying supplies from Egypt crossing into the buffer zone as limited deliveries continued.

Statistics:

  • 20-point plan introduced by Trump outlines the framework for Gaza's governance.
  • 15 names of technocrats have been selected for the Board of Peace, but their role remains unclear.
  • 75% of Gazans support the creation of a Palestinian state, however, the plan remains ambiguous on its implementation (BOHL, 1).
  • 25% of Gazans believe that Israel will permanently occupy Gaza, while 10% think that Hamas will take control (Goldberg, 1).
  • Estimated time frame for the disarmament process remains unclear.
  • 10 countries will participate in the International Stabilization Force (ISF).

Sources:

  • Reuters (1)
  • The New York Times (1)
  • Anadolu (1)
  • Goldberg, Ori: Israel Academic and Analyst (1)
  • Trump, Donald: US President (1)

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