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Conservatism

Bolivia's Presidential Election: A Shift in Politics

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

As the final round of Bolivia's presidential election approaches on October 19, the country is witnessing a significant shift in politics, with no left-wing candidate on the ballot for the first time in nearly two decades. The Movement Towards Socialism (MAS), the current governing party, has suffered an implosion, leading to the splintering of party leaders and the failure to advance a candidate to the run-off election. The election pits Rodrigo Paz, a centrist candidate from the Christian Democratic Party, against Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga, a right-wing candidate and former president.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) has failed to advance a candidate to the run-off election, marking a significant shift in the country's politics.
  • Rodrigo Paz, a centrist candidate from the Christian Democratic Party, has gained momentum despite registering less than 10 percent in early polling.
  • Jorge Quiroga, a right-wing candidate and former president, has a slight lead in the polls, but analysts have pointed out that polling failed to detect support for Paz in the first round of voting.
  • The election has been marred by controversies, including a series of racist social media posts made by Quiroga's running mate, Juan Pablo Velasco.
  • Both candidates have proposed pro-market policies and a departure from the left-wing programme that has dominated Bolivian politics for the last two decades.
  • Paz has suggested lower tariffs to help import goods and expressed interest in greater integration into regional trade blocs, such as MERCOSUR.
  • The election may have significant implications for relations with the United States, with both candidates indicating a desire for closer ties.

Statistics:

  • 24% of Bolivians consider the economy their primary concern this election season (polling by the Americas Society/Council of the Americas)
  • 17% of Bolivian voters cited price increases as a top concern (polling by the Americas Society/Council of the Americas)
  • 14% of voters cited fuel shortages as a top concern (polling by the Americas Society/Council of the Americas)
  • Polling by CB Consultora shows Paz with a 42.5% approval rating, while Quiroga leads with 56.7% approval (poll taken between October 1 and 6)
  • 75% of respondents said they would vote in the run-off (poll by CB Consultora)

Sources:

  • Al Jazeera: "Bolivia on the brink: How a presidential election heralds a political shift" (October 16, 2025)
  • Al Jazeera: "Will Evo Morales sink the left's hopes in Bolivia's presidential race?" (August 14, 2025)
  • Al Jazeera: "Antigovernment protests in Bolivia leave multiple people dead" (June 12, 2025)
  • CB Consultora: Twitter post (October 6, 2025)
  • Americas Society/Council of the Americas: Polling data (August 2025)
  • Andean Information Network: Interview with Kathryn Ledebur (October 2025)
  • Al Jazeera: "What could Trump's return to the White House mean for Latin America?" (December 11, 2024)
  • Al Jazeera: "Will happen again: Marco Rubio hints at further US strikes in Caribbean" (September 3, 2025)
  • Al Jazeera: "EU and South America's MERCOSUR bloc announce win-win free trade deal" (December 6, 2024)

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