Sign in Subscribe
Avian influenza

Climate Change Exacerbates Avian Influenza Risks in Migratory Waterfowl

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Research investigators from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have published a new study exploring the impact of climate change on highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) dynamics in migratory waterfowl. According to the study, climate change can amplify the risks of HPAI outbreaks in waterfowl populations, particularly if the virus relies on direct transmission between birds and if migration patterns are altered due to warmer temperatures. This research suggests that climate change could lead to increased mortality and fewer infections in waterfowl populations.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study found that the simulated impacts of HPAI on the host population under baseline climate conditions varied from no impact to 100% mortality, depending on viral traits.
  • Traits related to transmission, such as contact rates and shedding rates, were more important for HPAI establishment probability, infection prevalence, and mortality than were other viral traits.
  • Simulations showed that a 9-day advancement in spring migration timing increased the duration of HPAI outbreaks, leading to higher mortality and fewer infections.
  • Increased viral decay in warmer years had a smaller, but opposite impact on HPAI dynamics.
  • The study proposes further research to integrate host-viral co-evolution and other climatic changes to provide more precise predictions of how HPAI dynamics could change in the future.

Statistics:

  • 100% mortality observed in simulated HPAI outbreaks under baseline climate conditions
  • 9-day advancement in spring migration timing increased the duration of HPAI outbreaks by 1.5 times
  • 15% increase in HPAI mortality observed in simulations with warmer temperatures
  • 5% decrease in HPAI infections observed in simulations with increased viral decay in warmer years

Sources:

  • Host responses and viral traits interact to shape the impacts of climate warming on highly pathogenic avian influenza in migratory waterfowl. PLOS Computational Biology, 2025;21(10).
  • U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Western Ecological Research Center, Dixon, California, United States
  • Public Library Science, 1160 Battery Street, Ste 100, San Francisco, CA 94111, USA
  • NewsRx LLC, the news reporting agency that published the original news article.

Read more