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Elections

Thin Margins, Thick Politics: Bihar's Assembly Elections May Come Down to a Few Hundred Votes

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

In the landscape of Bihar's elections, every vote counts, and allegiances can shift like the winds. As the state prepares for the 2025 Assembly polls, ten constituencies stand at the forefront of this fluid landscape, where the margins of victory can be perilously thin. The JD(U) and RJD have historically dominated these seats, but with realigned alliances, the players and the stakes have changed. Every election in Bihar reminds us that even a few hundred votes can redraw the state's political map.

Key Takeaways:

  • Hilsa, a Nalanda district seat, saw JD(U)'s Krishnamurari Sharan edge out RJD's Atri Muni by just 12 votes in 2020, reflecting the constituency's historical swing between the two parties.
  • Barbigha's JD(U) candidate Sudarshan Kumar won by a margin of 113 votes, showcasing the electorate's split opinion with both JD(U) and Congress polling around 33% each.
  • Ramgarh's RJD candidate Sudhakar Singh defeated BSP's Ambika Singh by 189 votes, while BJP's Ashok Kumar Singh was just 2,800 votes behind, indicating a tight three-way contest in 2020.
  • Matihani's Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) candidate Raj Kumar Singh won by 333 votes over JD(U)'s Narendra Kumar Singh, making it one of Bihar's most unpredictable battlegrounds.
  • Bhorey saw JD(U) candidate Sunil Kumar win by 462 votes over CPI(ML) candidate Jitendra Paswan, reflecting the Left's strong rural base among Dalit and agrarian voters.
  • Dehri's RJD candidate Phate Bahadur Singh beat BJP's Satyanarayan Singh by just 464 votes, both polling over 41%, mirroring the broader state trend.
  • Bachhwara's BJP candidate Surendra Mehata edged out CPI candidate Abdhesh Kumar Rai by 484 votes, featuring a straight Left-versus-BJP duel with both parties polling nearly 30% each.
  • Chakai produced one of 2020's biggest upsets with independent candidate Sumit Kumar Singh winning by 581 votes over RJD's Savitri Devi, a contest that could see a closer battle in 2025.
  • Kurhani's 2020 contest between RJD's Anil Kumar Sahni and BJP's Kedar Prasad Gupta ended with just 712 votes separating the two, with Kurhani reflecting Tejashwi Yadav's message of youth and jobs against the NDA's stability pitch.
  • Bakhri, one of Bihar's few remaining Left bastions, saw CPI candidate Suryakant Paswan defeat BJP candidate Ramshankar Paswan by 777 votes, as the CPI seeks to retain its grip.

Statistics:

  • The margins of victory in these ten constituencies were under 500 votes in 2020, exemplifying Bihar's deep political fragmentation.
  • JD(U) and RJD have historically dominated these seats, but with realigned alliances, new contenders have emerged.
  • The constituencies mentioned have voted for both the NDA and the opposition blocs, indicating a highly fluid political landscape.
  • The 2025 Bihar Assembly polls are scheduled for November 6 and 11, with results expected on November 14.
  • Reprint Rights: timescontent.com

Sources:

  • TOI News Desk "Bihar Assembly Elections 2025: Days after PM 'Didi' adds Tejashwi to the PM-MoD mix", first published on timesofindia.indiatimes.com, exact date and timestamp not provided.

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