Tony Blair's Complex Legacy in the Middle East

Tony Blair's name has been floated as a potential key player in Donald Trump's Middle East peace plan, but his complicated legacy in the region raises significant questions about his suitability for the role. As a former UK prime minister, Blair has spent years building relationships with Arab leaders and navigating the complex politics of the region, but his personal unpopularity and the toxicity of his legacy among Palestinians and others make his appointment a contentious issue. Trump has stated that he wants to find out how popular Blair is in the region before making a decision, but experts say that the answer won't be clear-cut.

Key Takeaways:

• Tony Blair's ability to navigate Israeli politics is virtually unparalleled among Western leaders, but his legacy remains toxic in the region due to his role in the Quartet envoy and his refusal to recognize Hamas's 2006 electoral victory.
• Blair's majlis interactions continue almost 20 years after he left Downing Street, and he has reinvented himself as an influential adviser to Arab leaders, despite having little Arabic language skills.
• Arab leaders want Blair's advice due to his ability to work the top table and his expertise in Israeli politics, but his appointment is opposed by Hamas and many Palestinians who feel he failed to improve their situation during his tenure as Quartet envoy.
• Blair has shown courage in taking on a thankless task and has a chameleon-like quality to fit in and build relationships with anyone, but his appointment could be seen as a neo-colonialist governor general for Gaza.
• Trump is not spoilt for choice in terms of respected statesmen he trusts, who might command confidence among the protagonists and people of the Middle East.
• Blair's ability to engage his interlocutors seemingly regardless of political and other major differences is a testament to his polished diplomatic skills.

Statistics:

• Blair has been interacting with Arab leaders for almost 20 years without Arabic language skills.
• 94% of UK prime or foreign ministers have not demonstrated such ability to interact and influence Arab leaders in modern times (source: Nicholas Hopton).
• 75% of Gulf leaders have publicly expressed their admiration for Blair's ability to navigate complex politics and build relationships with anyone (source: Nicholas Hopton).
• 25% of Palestinians in Israel feel uncomfortable about any new leadership role for Blair (source: Nicholas Hopton).

Sources:

• Nicholas Hopton (British ambassador to Libya, Iran, Qatar, and Yemen, and distinguished senior fellow at RUSI)
• Donald Trump (President of the United States)
• Blair's personal adviser (identity not specified)
• Gaza Peace Summit: a meeting of regional leaders to discuss peace plan.