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Virginia Commonwealth University's Commonwealth Poll Reveals Tightening Rivals in 2025 Statewide Election

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Virginia's governor's race is showing a slight shift in favor of incumbent Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, with her challenger, former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, now trailing by only 7 percentage points. According to the latest Commonwealth Poll conducted by the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University, Spanberger leads among independent voters but still falls short of Earle-Sears overall. The poll indicates that Spanberger's 7-point deficit is a narrowing of the 9-point margin reported in the September Commonwealth Poll. The poll also shows that margins are tightening across all three statewide contests, with the most notable movement in the attorney general's race.

Key Takeaways:

  • Former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger leads Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears 49% to 42% in the Virginia governor's race, down from a 9-point margin reported in the September Commonwealth Poll conducted in August.
  • Spanberger leads among independent voters 35% to 24%, with 20% undecided.
  • In the lieutenant governor's contest, Sen. Ghazala Hashmi holds a 44% to 43% edge over John Reid, compared with a 4-point advantage in the most recent Commonwealth Poll.
  • Attorney General Jason Miyares leads former Del. Jay Jones 45% to 42% in the attorney general's contest, a net 9-point swing since the last Commonwealth Poll.
  • The top issue influencing voters is the rising cost of living (27%), followed by immigration (14%) and women's reproductive rights (12%).
  • 47% of registered voters want Democrats to hold a majority in the House of Delegates, while 44% prefer Republican control.

Statistics:

  • 49% to 42%: Spanberger's now 7-point deficit against Earle-Sears (down from a 9-point margin in the September Commonwealth Poll).
  • 35% to 24%: Spanberger's lead among independent voters.
  • 44% to 43%: Hashmi's margin over Reid in the lieutenant governor's contest.
  • 45% to 42%: Miyares' lead over Jones in the attorney general's contest.
  • 27%: Percentage of registered voters who identify the rising cost of living as the issue influencing their vote.
  • 14% and 12%: Immigration and women's reproductive rights, respectively, as top issues influencing voters.

Sources:

  • L. Douglas Wilder and Robyn McDougle, The L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University, "Commonwealth Poll: Spanberger leads Earle-Sears 49% to 42% in Virginia governor's race", Oct. 21.
  • Virginia Commonwealth University, "Commonwealth Poll", Oct. 6-14.

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