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Communism

Xi Jinping's Succession Dilemma: Can China Maintain Stability as He Ages?

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Xi Jinping, the 72-year-old Chinese president, has led the country for 13 years, amassing power unseen since Mao Zedong. Despite his dominance, he faces a pressing dilemma: China's stability and future direction will heavily depend on his succession plan. However, with no clear heir apparent and a strong preference for loyalty to his agenda, Xi's decision-making will become increasingly complex, even if he delays naming a successor until after his fourth five-year term in 2027.

Key Takeaways:

  • Xi Jinping has led China for 13 years, amassing dominance unseen since Mao Zedong, and has abolished the presidency's two-term limit to stay in office indefinitely.
  • Naming a successor risks creating a rival center of power and weakening Xi's grip, but failing to settle on a leader-in-waiting could jeopardize his legacy and sow rifts in China's political elite.
  • Xi is highly distrustful of others, especially those officials who have only an indirect relationship with him, and may grow more fluid in the party ranks as he tests and discards potential recruits for leadership.
  • Experts predict the upper ranks of the party may grow more fluid in the future, making the succession process more fragmented, and potentially leading to low-grade power struggles among officials vying for influence and survival.
  • Xi's own protégés are in their 60s or older, and may be too old to be plausible heirs several years from now, according to experts.
  • With Xi likely to serve another term or even longer, his successor could prove to be an official born in the 1970s, working in a provincial administration or an agency of the central government.
  • Xi has warned that seemingly minor shortcomings in officials can become serious threats in moments of crisis, and is concerned about officials who have not been tested by hardship or responsibility.

Statistics:

  • Xi Jinping is 72 years old.
  • He has led China for 13 years.
  • The two-term limit for the presidency was abolished in 2018.
  • The Politburo Standing Committee, the seven-member body at the apex of party power, is packed with longtime Xi allies in their 60s or older.
  • Xi is likely to serve another term, and possibly longer, before naming a successor.
  • Officials who may be suitable heirs are likely born in the 1970s and working in a provincial administration or an agency of the central government.
  • Xi has made securing a global lead in technological innovation and advanced manufacturing a priority for China's development over the next five years.

Sources:

  • Buckley, Chris. "Xi Jinping Sees Succession as a Threat to His Rule, and His Legacy." The New York Times, 18 Nov. 2022.
  • Thomas, Neil. Fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis.
  • Czin, Jonathan. Researcher on Chinese politics at the Brookings Institution.
  • Johnson, Christopher K. President of China Strategies Group, a consulting firm.
  • Shih, Victor. Professor at the University of California San Diego who studies elite politics in China.
  • Wang Hsin-hsien. Professor at National Chengchi University in Taiwan who studies the Communist Party.

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