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Consumer price indexes

Government Shutdown Threatens Data Collection and Economic Reports

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

The government shutdown has significant implications for the accuracy and timeliness of economic reports, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) unable to gather new data to produce future reports. The September inflation report was delayed, and the October report's release is uncertain, potentially leaving policymakers at the Federal Reserve without crucial data as they head into their final meeting of the year.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has suspended operations during the government shutdown, halting the collection of new data for future reports.
  • The shutdown has already delayed the September inflation report, and the October report's release is uncertain, with the White House stating that it "doesn't expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics to be able to release the Consumer Price Index for October."
  • Producing reports such as the inflation report only requires processing data collected before the shutdown, but gathering new data is essential for producing accurate reports, particularly for the Consumer Price Index.
  • Experts warn that the longer the shutdown drags on, the greater the damage to the accuracy of economic reports, with some reports potentially unable to be recreated due to the inability to collect retroactive data.
  • Data on employment, wages, retail sales, and other economic indicators could be significantly impacted, with the shutdown's effects potentially lasting beyond its duration.

Statistics:

  • The BLS has not been gathering new data since the shutdown began on October 1.
  • The shutdown may result in no October inflation report, which could leave businesses, markets, families, and the Federal Reserve in disarray.
  • The Consumer Price Index is based on data gathered by government workers who visit businesses each month to check prices, making it difficult to collect retroactive data.
  • Other reports, such as those on employment, wages, retail sales, and other economic indicators, are potentially easier to collect after the fact, but the longer the shutdown last, the harder it may be to collect and verify data from earlier periods.

Sources:

  • White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt's social media statement regarding the shutdown's impact on the BLS.
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics' website, detailing the shutdown's effects on data collection and report production.

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