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Democracy

Ivory Coast Presidential Election: A Test of Stability and Democratic Confidence

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is poised to elect its next president on Saturday, in a closely watched election that will be a test of stability and democratic confidence in one of West Africa's most dynamic economies. President Alassane Ouattara, 83, is seeking a fourth term, promising continuity in economic growth, infrastructure, and security. However, his bid for re-election has sparked opposition, with four challengers, including Jean-Louis Billon, a former commerce minister and businessman, who has emerged as the strongest candidate.

Key Takeaways:

  • President Alassane Ouattara, 83, is seeking a fourth term, promising continuity in economic growth, infrastructure, and security, but his bid for re-election has sparked opposition.
  • The four challengers are Jean-Louis Billon, a former commerce minister and businessman, who has emerged as the strongest candidate, Simone Ehivet Gbagbo, a former first lady, and two independent candidates, Ahoua Don Mello and Henriette Adjoua Lagou.
  • Ivory Coast has recorded an average GDP growth rate of 8.2% between 2012 and 2019, one of the fastest in Africa, but growth has largely held since the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • The country's population is around 32 million, nearly half of whom are under 18, and women make up more than half of registered voters, who are pressing for greater inclusion in economic and political life.
  • The election will be held under a two-round absolute majority system, where a candidate must secure more than 50% of votes to win outright, and international observers from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union are monitoring the vote for transparency.

Statistics:

  • Average GDP growth rate of 8.2% per annum between 2012 and 2019.
  • 8,700,000 voters are registered, although the opposition claims this figure underrepresents the country's adult population.
  • Voter turnout stood at over 50% in both 2015 and 2020, and could be low again amid candidate exclusions and calls for boycotts.
  • President Ouattara received 94% of the vote in 2020, but a Messina Group survey found that 66% of his 2020 voters would favor Thiam in a hypothetical race.

Sources:

  • The report from which this analysis is drawn
  • World Bank: Ivory Coast's GDP growth rate
  • Messina Group: Survey of voter intentions

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