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Disease transmission

Mosquito Vector Range Shifts: Widespread Expansions and Evidence Gaps in Climate Attribution

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

A study published in the journal Global Change Biology has shed light on the pressing issue of mosquito range shifts in the face of rising global temperatures. Researchers from Stanford University conducted a scoping review of 178 studies on six continents, documenting expansions or contractions in medically important mosquito species. The findings highlight the need for long-term mosquito monitoring, rigorous climate-attribution methods, and better documentation of confounding factors like land-use change and vector control efforts.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study identified 118 mosquito species with range expansions on six continents, with over a third of the studies citing warming as a driver, but only 10% performing statistical tests of the role of climate.
  • Instead of expanding into newly suitable areas, many expansions appear to be filling preexisting thermally suitable habitats, with human-aided dispersal, land-use changes, and urbanization being major contributors.
  • The study found that several studies reported poleward or upward expansions consistent with climate warming, but none demonstrated warm-edge contractions driven by rising temperatures.
  • The research highlights the need for improved methodologies to attribute climate-driven changes to mosquito ranges, beyond relying on statistical tests.
  • The study's conclusion emphasizes the importance of better documentation of confounding factors like land-use change and vector control efforts to accurately disentangle climate-driven changes from other anthropogenic factors.
  • The study involved a team of researchers from Stanford University, including Anna Rose Robinson, Kelsey Lyberger, Lisa Couper, Isabel Delwel, Caroline Glidden, Crystal Qian, Aja Burslem, Faith Fernandez, Benjamen Gao, Gabriella Garcia, Julio Gomez, Kristen B. Greenland, Caspar Griffin, Stephanie Jackson, Annalisa King, and Olivia Man.

Statistics:

  • The study reviewed 178 studies on six continents, documenting expansions or contractions in medically important mosquito species.
  • 118 mosquito species were found to have range expansions on six continents.
  • Over a third of the studies (34%) cited warming as a driver of range expansions.
  • Only 10% of the studies performed statistical tests to evaluate the role of climate in range expansions.
  • No studies demonstrated warm-edge contractions driven by rising temperatures, which are theoretically predicted in some settings.

Sources:

  • A Scoping Review of Mosquito Vector Range Shifts: Widespread Expansions and Evidence Gaps in Climate Attribution. Global Change Biology, 2025;31(10).
  • Global Change Biology can be contacted at: Wiley, 111 River St, Hoboken 07030-5774, NJ, USA.
  • NewsRx. Reports Outline Science Study Findings from Stanford University (A Scoping Review of Mosquito Vector Range Shifts: Widespread Expansions and Evidence Gaps in Climate Attribution). Science Letter. October 24, 2025; p 1505.

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