Murky Intelligence Behind US Boat Strikes in the Caribbean and Pacific

The Trump administration's claims about the boats it has destroyed in the Caribbean and the Pacific, allegedly carrying drugs, are based on intercepted communications, but officials say the details of the intelligence behind the strikes remain unclear. President Trump cited "incredible intelligence" and "recorded proof and evidence" but has not provided specifics on how it knew the vessels were carrying drugs. The US government typically does not discuss the intelligence behind military operations, but officials have not provided information about the boats' contents or the nearly 40 people killed in the attacks.

Key Takeaways:

• The Trump administration claims that the boats destroyed in the Caribbean and the Pacific were carrying drugs based on intercepted communications, but the details of the intelligence remain unclear.
• President Trump cited "incredible intelligence" and "recorded proof and evidence" but has not provided specifics on how it knew the vessels were carrying drugs.
• Officials have described the intelligence as "signals intelligence," which includes radio traffic and mobile phone communications.
• The reliability of intercepted communications is uncertain, as signals intelligence can be misleading and may not accurately represent the situation.
• Former spies have said that the best use of signal intelligence is to combine it with other information, such as satellite imagery and reports from informants.
• Intelligence collection on counternarcotics in Latin America and the Caribbean is not new, but the Trump administration has reprioritized national security threats and increased collection on cartels.
• The US military, including the National Security Agency, has collected intelligence on narcotics trafficking, but officials acknowledge that intelligence on Latin America is imperfect.
• The administration has not provided information about who else might be on the boats, including migrants, and some people on the boats have been from multiple countries.
• The president of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, has criticized the US strikes, stating that one of the attacks killed a fisherman and was tantamount to murder.

Statistics:

• The nearly 40 people killed in the US boat strikes.
• The US government has collected an extensive amount of visual imagery from satellites and intercepted important communications about narcotics trafficking.
• The National Security Agency oversees the collection of signals intelligence for the entire government.
• The US military has used guided-missile destroyers in the Caribbean, as seen in a buildup of US naval forces in the region.

Sources:

• " Officials say intercepted communications are the core of the intelligence collected on the boats."
• "Mr. Trump said on Thursday his administration had ‘incredible intelligence’ that drugs were being smuggled on the boats."
• "Marco Rubio, the secretary of state and national security adviser, has reinforced the perception that the United States knows who is on the boats, where they are coming from and what they carry."
• "At first glance, signals intelligence can appear very strong."
• "Colin Powell, the secretary of state, of Iraqi military officers talking about a ‘modified vehicle’ and ‘forbidden ammo’"
• "Gina Haspel, a C.I.A. director in Mr. Trump’s first term, began increasing collection on cartels."
• "Mr. Trump has said the Venezuelan prison gang, Tren de Aragua, is controlled by the Venezuelan government."
• "The president of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, has said a strike in mid-September killed a fisherman, and amounted to murder."