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A Potential Invasion of Venezuela: Lessons from the Past

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

U.S. officials have stated that their goal is to remove Venezuela's autocratic president, Nicolás Maduro, using a large military force now stationed in the Caribbean, despite the risks of regional instability and harm to the U.S. Analysts have warned that the outcome could be disastrous, with a surge in drug trafficking, conflict, and migration. This scenario is reminiscent of the U.S. invasion of Panama in 1989, which, although touted as a swift and easy victory, ultimately led to significant civilian casualties, displacement, and instability.

Key Takeaways:

  • The U.S. invasion of Panama in 1989, code-named Operation Just Cause, was intended to remove the repressive strongman General Manuel Noriega and restore American primacy, but it resulted in the destruction of a working-class neighborhood, El Chorrillo, and an estimated 300-500 civilian deaths.
  • The operation also displaced thousands of Panamanians, many of whom were forced to shelter in refugee camps, and drew widespread international condemnation.
  • The U.S. has historically acted in Latin America under the principles of Theodore Roosevelt's corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, which asserts the right to interfere in affairs of nations perceived to run afoul of U.S. interests.
  • U.S. intervention in Latin America has been a constant, even during periods of supposed isolationism or "America First."
  • In recent years, the Panamanian government has exhumed and identified victims of the invasion who were buried in mass graves, and the estimated number of casualties remains disputed.
  • The parallels between the U.S. invasion of Panama and a potential invasion of Venezuela are striking, with both countries posing no imminent security threat to the U.S.

Statistics:

  • The U.S. military in Panama consisted of approximately 27,000 troops,[1] with around 300 U.S. servicemen killed and 2,100 wounded during the operation.[2]
  • The invasion displaced thousands of Panamanians, with estimates ranging from 10,000 to 20,000.[3]
  • The total cost of the invasion was estimated at $596 million, with $420 million in aid approved by Congress to help rebuild Panama.[4]

Sources:

  • [1] "U.S. Invasion of Panama: Operation Just Cause".
  • [2] "Operation Just Cause: The U.S. Invasion of Panama."
  • [3] "The U.S. Invasion of Panama: What We Learned."
  • [4] "Reconstruction Assistance Plan for Panama."
  • [5] "Government Accountability Office."

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