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Economic integration

ASEAN Leaders Face Pressure to Choose Sides Amid US-China Rivalry

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

ASEAN nations are trying to balance their relationships with both the US and China, as tensions between the two superpowers intensify in the region. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit this week will likely see the two superpowers' influence at play, with US President Donald Trump attending the ceremony where Thailand and Cambodia sign a peace settlement.

The settlement was reached after five days of fighting triggered by border disputes partially due to pressure from Trump, who threatened economic consequences if the two countries didn't resolve the issue. This shows the significant influence the US has in the Asia Pacific region, particularly in the context of the growing rivalry between the US and China.

One of the key issues at the center of the rivalry is Taiwan, which China believes belongs to it, but the US supports the status quo with Taiwan as a self-governing democracy. Both superpowers are also wrangling over the existing order in the South China Sea, with China's expansive "nine-dash line" claim violating international law and the exclusive economic zones of Southeast Asian nations like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia.

Key Takeaways:

  • The US and China's rivalry is intensifying in the Asia Pacific region, with ASEAN countries caught in the middle and forced to choose a side.
  • US President Donald Trump's attendance at the ASEAN summit is significant, as he seeks to strengthen ties with the region and counter China's growing influence.
  • The rivalry between the US and China is driven by competing claims to Taiwan and the South China Sea, with China's expansive "nine-dash line" claim violating international law.
  • ASEAN countries are trying to balance their relationships with both the US and China, with some cooperating closely with the US on defense and security, while others have close economic ties with China.
  • The region's politicians are dismayed by Trump's tariff policies, which has impacted the US' closer allies in the region.
  • The perception of the US in Southeast Asia has changed, with many ASEAN countries no longer seeing the US as a reliable partner, especially in the face of increasing Chinese belligerence.
  • ASEAN states are reacting to Chinese aggressiveness in different ways, with economically weaker countries like Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos having little choice but to put up with Chinese pressure.
  • Larger and wealthier countries like the Philippines and Indonesia are trying to achieve a balancing act between cooperation with both the US and China, without taking sides.

Statistics:

  • More than 30 heads of state and government from the 10 member states of ASEAN are invited to the summit.
  • 5 days of fighting between Thailand and Cambodia were triggered by border disputes.
  • China's "nine-dash line" claim encompasses about 90% of the South China Sea.
  • The Philippines cooperates closely with the US on defense and security, with the two nations signing a mutual defense treaty back in 1951.
  • China is one of the Philippines' three most important trading partners.
  • Indonesia sometimes cooperates with China and sometimes with the US.

Sources:

  • German Institute for International and Security Affairs
  • The Diplomat
  • East Asia Forum
  • German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA)

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