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Ouattara, Alassane

Ivory Coast Presidential Election: Ouattara Favored to Secure Fourth Term

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Voters in the Ivory Coast are set to cast ballots in a presidential election, with incumbent President Alassane Ouattara the overwhelming favorite to secure a fourth term. The election, which will see nearly nine million Ivorians vote from 8am to 6pm, has been marred by controversy, with opposition heavyweights Laurent Gbagbo and Tidjane Thiam barred from standing. Critics argue that the exclusion of key candidates has given Ouattara an unfair advantage, with none of his four rivals representing an established party or having the reach of the ruling Rally of Houphouetistes for Democracy and Peace (RHDP). The election is seen as a test of Ouattara's popularity and his ability to secure a fourth term, despite constitutional limits that would normally prevent him from running again.

Key Takeaways:

  • The election has been marred by controversy, with opposition heavyweights Laurent Gbagbo and Tidjane Thiam barred from standing due to a criminal conviction and French citizenship, respectively.
  • Ouattara is the overwhelming favorite to secure a fourth term, despite constitutional limits that would normally prevent him from running again.
  • None of Ouattara's four rivals represents an established party or has the reach of the ruling RHDP.
  • The left-wing vote hangs in the balance between Gbagbo and Ahoua Don Mello, a civil engineer and independent Pan-African with Russian sympathies.
  • Turnout will be key, with the opposition calling for a boycott and about 8.7 million people eligible to vote in a country of 33 million.
  • A second round will take place if no candidate clears the 50% threshold required to win.
  • Ouattara has wielded power in the Ivory Coast since 2011, and his detractors argue that his decision to seek a third term is unconstitutional.

Statistics:

  • About 9 million voters will cast ballots in the election.
  • 8.7 million people are eligible to vote, out of a population of 33 million.
  • The median age of the eligible voters is 18.3 years.
  • 44,000 security forces have been deployed across the country to keep protests in check.
  • 85 people died during the 2020 presidential election, according to official figures.

Sources:

  • Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/25/ivory-coast-presidential-election-whos-standing-and-whats-at-stake
  • Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/5/12/ivory-coast-opposition-leader-resigns-but-vows-to-still-fight-for-victory

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