Redistricting Wars: The Unfamiliar Terrain of 2024 House Control
The 2024 midterm elections have taken an unusual turn, with both parties engaging in a high-stakes game of redistricting politics in state capitals and courthouses. Rather than focusing on traditional efforts like recruiting candidates and early fundraising, political operatives are now concentrated on drawing new congressional maps, which could significantly impact the House control. The outcome of this redistricting arms race will largely depend on the partisan leanings of the emerging proposals, with both parties poised to file lawsuits to challenge the maps.
Key Takeaways:
- Republicans have been more aggressive in pushing for new gerrymandered maps, with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) stating that they have the "most favorable" map to defend in many years.
- Democrats are trying to play catch-up in states where they dominate the legislature and have their party's governor, with Virginia Democrats launching a bank-shot effort to boost their party in a couple of districts.
- Erin Covey, the top analyst on House races, estimates that the "likeliest scenario" would give Republicans an additional six to nine seats to add to their slim majority.
- Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales estimates a similar range, projecting that the best-case redistricting scenarios for each party would result in Republicans gaining a significant advantage in 14 seats and Democrats gaining a significant advantage in seven seats.
- The current Voting Rights Act could be dismantled by a conservative Supreme Court majority, potentially leading to a loss of a dozen or so seats for Democrats in the 2028 elections.
Statistics:
- Since 1934, the president's party has gained seats in only three midterm elections, with single-digit gains each time.
- In 20 midterm elections since 1934, the president's party has lost at least 10 seats, with the opposition party gaining anywhere from 10 to 81 seats in 10 of those elections.
- Gallup polls have consistently shown Trump's job approval rating to be historically low, with only 41% of Americans approving of his performance in late October, compared to 42% for Joe Biden at the same stage of his presidency.
- Republicans gained 63 seats in 2010 during President Barack Obama's first midterm election, while Democrats gained 30 seats in 2006 during what was called Bush's "six-year-itch" midterm.
Sources:
- The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter
- Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales
- American Presidency Project
- Gallup's presidential ratings
- Bruce Mehlman, former Republican analyst
- Erin Covey, top analyst on House races
- Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor for Inside Elections