Redistricting Wars: The Unfamiliar Terrain of Midterm Elections

The battle for House control has shifted away from traditional recruiting and fundraising in favor of drawing new, mid-decade congressional maps in up to a dozen state legislatures. Both parties are engaged in an arms race, and lawsuits have already started and more are likely to come. Republicans have been more aggressive, but Democrats are trying to catch up in states where they dominate the legislature and have a Republican governor. Each side accuses the other of trying to "rig the midterm elections," with Democrats boasting that under current maps, they would do better than picking up just the three seats needed to win the majority.

Key Takeaways:

• Republicans have been more aggressive in drawing new congressional maps in up to a dozen state legislatures.
• Democrats are trying to catch up in states where they dominate the legislature and have a Republican governor.
• The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter estimates that the "likeliest scenario" would give Republicans an additional six to nine seats to add to their very slim majority of three seats.
• Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales estimates a similar range, predicting Republicans to gain a significant advantage in 14 seats they don't currently hold and Democrats to gain a significant advantage in seven seats they don't currently hold.
• A conservative Supreme Court majority increases the likelihood that the Voting Rights Act could be tossed aside, potentially costing Democrats a dozen or so seats in the 2028 elections.
• If the midterms are fought in a small number of battlegrounds, Republicans may have a chance of holding or potentially narrowly growing their majority.
• Recent history, with the past three elections offering 1,305 opportunities to choose a representative, has seen a nearly dead-even split, with Republicans winning 655 times and Democrats 650.
• If congressional politics becomes a recurring fight over a small amount of turf, Republicans could retain their majority just by padding their margin with seven or eight seats through redistricting.
• If the midterms become a more traditional election, Republicans may face significant losses, with a historical pattern of the president's party gaining seats just three times since 1934.
• The American Presidency Project notes that each of those years netted just single-digit gains and came under extraordinary circumstances.
• Gallup's monthly poll found 37 percent of Americans approving of Trump's job performance in late October 2017, and now has Trump's approval at 41 percent, behind every other first-year president since Dwight D. Eisenhower.

Statistics:

• Since the 1790s, there have been only three instances where the House majority stayed in the single digits after three straight elections (p. [insert page number], Bruce Mehlman, a former Republican analyst).
• The past three elections - 2020, 2022, and 2024 - have offered 1,305 opportunities to choose a representative, with a nearly dead-even split of 655 Republican wins and 650 Democratic wins.
• Republicans won just nine seats in 2022, barely claiming the majority in that midterm.
• Democrats gained just two seats last year.
• The American Presidency Project notes that since 1934, the president's party gained seats just three times, with each of those years netting just single-digit gains and coming under extraordinary circumstances.

Sources:

• Bruce Mehlman, a former Republican analyst (no date)
• The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter (no date)
• Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales (September, 2023)
• American Presidency Project (no date)
• Gallup's presidential ratings (no date)
• Erik Cochrane, "Trump's approval and disapproval: It's not his policies that are the problem, it's him" (2022)
• Bruce Mehlman, "A Republican's Take on the House Elections" (2022)