Sign in Subscribe
Ukrainian foreign relations

Russia's War Against Ukraine: A Threat to Eastern Europe

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Austrian military expert and retired Brigadier General of the Austrian Armed Forces Gerald Karner warns that if Russia manages to end the war against Ukraine on its terms, there will be a risk of it attacking a NATO or European Union country. Karner believes that a favorable outcome for Russia would enable the country to rebuild its armed forces, posing a direct threat to the security of all Europe. He emphasizes that Europe has been facing hybrid warfare from Russia since the 2010s, and it is crucial that the continent reacts decisively to inform its population about the existential threat.

Key Takeaways:

  • If Russia emerges victorious in the war against Ukraine, it may attack a NATO or European Union country, posing a direct threat to European security.
  • A favorable outcome for Russia would allow the country to rebuild its armed forces, putting the entire Eastern Europe at risk.
  • The Suwalki corridor, a vulnerable region between Poland and Lithuania, could be a potential target for Russian aggression.
  • Russia has been waging a hybrid war against Europe since the 2010s, involving election interference, destabilizing actions, and disinformation campaigns.
  • Europe's failure to react decisively to this threat has emboldened Russia.
  • Russia's drone provocations should be met with firmness, as demonstrated by Polish Minister Radoslaw Sikorski's warning to shoot down any object that violates airspace.
  • Russia may believe it can attack a NATO country if it concludes that Europe cannot defend itself without U.S. participation.

Statistics:

  • Russia has been waging hybrid warfare against Europe since at least 2010 (Karner).
  • The 2014-2015 period marked a significant escalation of Russia's hybrid warfare efforts (Karner).
  • The Suwalki corridor is a vulnerable region between Poland and Lithuania, stretching approximately 60 km (37 miles).
  • Jerzy Bartnik, former Polish Deputy Defense Minister, estimates that the Eastern European region has approximately 120,000 troops, mostly from Poland, and around 1,000-2,000 tanks (Source not provided).

Sources:

  • Ukrinform
  • Retired Brigadier General Gerald Karner, Austrian military expert
  • Gustav Gressel, Austrian military expert and lecturer at the National Defense Academy of the Austrian Armed Forces
  • Radoslaw Sikorski, Polish Foreign Minister

Read more