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Maduro, Nicolás

Trump's Venezuela Intervention: A Complex Web of Interest and Altruism

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

The US is planning a significant military buildup in Venezuela, sending a dozen warships, including a nuclear submarine and an aircraft carrier, to deter corrupt dictator Nicolas Maduro's regime. This move has drawn parallels with Russia's actions in Ukraine, but there is a crucial difference: Trump's objective is to remove a Russian client regime and install a freely elected government, whereas Putin sought to annex Ukrainian territory. This raises complex questions about the US's role in Venezuela and the effectiveness of military intervention.

Key Takeaways:

  • The US is preparing a significant military buildup in Venezuela, with a dozen warships and 10,000 troops, to counter Maduro's regime.
  • Trump's objective is to remove a Russian client regime in Venezuela and install a freely elected government, unlike Putin's annexationist goals in Ukraine.
  • The US has a long history of intervening in Venezuelan affairs, dating back to 1904, when Theodore Roosevelt invoked the Monroe Doctrine to justify intervention in the country's debt crisis.
  • The Venezuelan crisis has caused widespread suffering, with 7.7 million Venezuelans (30% of the population) fleeing the country and verifed cases of death through malnutrition.
  • The opposition leader Maria Corina Machado remains in Venezuela, risking her life to rally democratic forces, despite not having seen her children in over eight years.
  • A free Venezuela would be in the interest of every country except Russia, Cuba, and Nicaragua, as it would lead to a boom in oil production, lower global prices, and a significant regional reversal of autocratic tendencies.

Statistics:

  • 7.7 million Venezuelans (30% of the population) have fled the country in search of safety and better living conditions.
  • 8,292 extrajudicial executions were carried out between 2015 and 2017, according to Amnesty International.
  • The Venezuelan economy has experienced hyper-inflation and immiseration, forcing many to rely on malnutrition as a means of survival.
  • The opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has not seen her children in over eight years, despite risking her life to continue rallying democratic forces in Venezuela.
  • The USS Gerald R Ford, a US aircraft carrier, can launch 90 planes, giving it total air supremacy in a conflict.

Sources:

  • "Chronic wrongdoing, or an impotence which results in a general loosening of the ties of civilised society, may ultimately require intervention by some civilised nation" - Theodore Roosevelt (1904)
  • "The land is going to be next" - Donald Trump, in a recent press conference
  • "We will not recognize any elections held without the presence of the international community" - Juan Guaido, Venezuelan opposition leader
  • "8,292 extrajudicial executions carried out between 2015 and 2017" - Amnesty International
  • "7.7 million Venezuelans (30% of the population) have fled the country" - various sources, including UNHCR and Venezuelan government reports.

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