Rapid Intensification of Atlantic Hurricanes Linked to Warming Oceans

Climate scientists have attributed the rapid intensification of Hurricane Melissa to the warming of the world's oceans caused by climate change. The Category 5 storm is expected to make landfall in Jamaica on Tuesday, bringing with it devastating winds and heavy rainfall. Scientists warn that this is the fourth storm in the Atlantic this year to undergo rapid intensification, with the likelihood of such events increasing due to global warming.

Key Takeaways:

• The warming of the world's oceans has contributed to the doubling of Hurricane Melissa's wind speed in less than 24 hours, with sustained wind speeds of over 157 mph (252 kph).
• This is the fourth storm in the Atlantic this year to undergo rapid intensification, with scientists observing storms intensify quickly in a warmer world.
• Climate change is fundamentally changing our weather, increasing the likelihood of storms going through rapid and super-rapid intensification, according to Bernadette Woods Placky, chief meteorologist at Climate Central.
• Studies have shown that Atlantic hurricanes are now more than twice as likely as before to intensify rapidly from minor storms to powerful and catastrophic events, with 8.1% of storms powering up from a Category 1 minor storm to a major hurricane in just 24 hours in the last 20 years.
• The U.S. National Hurricane Center has warned of "catastrophic" rainfall and flooding from Melissa in Jamaica, with some areas predicted to receive up to 40 inches (1 meter) of rain.
• Climate scientists have warned that storms intensifying faster near land poses greater risks to lives and infrastructure, with investment needed in early warning systems, sea walls, and other infrastructure to make communities more resilient to climate impacts.
• The world has warmed too much to prevent phenomena like rapid intensification, according to Akshay Deoras, a meteorologist at the University of Reading.
• The impact of climate change is putting lives at risk on islands and in coastal areas, with 90% of the extra heat going into the world's oceans, leading to sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Statistics:

• 830 Atlantic tropical cyclones since 1971 have been studied, with 8.1% of storms powering up from a Category 1 minor storm to a major hurricane in just 24 hours in the last 20 years.
• The likelihood of Atlantic hurricanes intensifying rapidly is more than twice as likely as before, according to a study in the journal .
• The U.S. National Hurricane Center has predicted a busier-than-usual Atlantic hurricane season this year, with 13 to 18 named storms, five to nine hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes.
• The storm has already killed at least four people in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with at least six people having died as a result of Melissa in the northern Caribbean.
• The storm has damaged nearly 200 homes in the Dominican Republic, with the impact of the storm expected to be catastrophic in Jamaica.

Sources:

• The University of Reading
• Climate Central
• The U.S. National Hurricane Center
• The journal
• The Associated Press
• The United Nations climate talks
• The Alliance of Small Island States