Cameroon's Election: A Fragile Final Phase for Paul Biya's Life Presidency

Paul Biya, the 92-year-old President of Cameroon, has won his election with a reduced majority of 53.66%. Despite his victory, the opposition has made significant gains, with Tchiroma Bakary, a former ally and government spokesperson, winning over 35% of the vote. This is the second-highest score ever achieved by an opposition candidate in Cameroon since Biya came to power in 1982.

The opposition's divided front and failure to present a united candidate have been significant challenges. Biya's victory has been met with countrywide protests and a crackdown, resulting in casualties. As Biya begins another term of office, he faces significant challenges, including ensuring political stability, establishing his legitimacy, and addressing the country's perennial problems of corruption, poverty, and slow growth.

Key Takeaways:

• Biya has won the election with a reduced majority of 53.66%, down from 71.28% in the 2018 election.
• Tchiroma Bakary, the opposition candidate, won over 35% of the vote, the second-highest score ever achieved by an opposition candidate.
• The opposition's divided front and failure to present a single candidate have been significant challenges.
• Biya faces significant challenges in ensuring political stability, establishing his legitimacy, and addressing the country's perennial problems.
• The Anglophone crisis in the southwest continues to fester, with the election result potentially galvanizing the rebellion.
• Biya's reported triumph comes with a much reduced mandate, which could lead to a palace coup or destabilization of the regime.
• Ambitious elites may abandon Biya's ship, as Bakary did, potentially destabilizing the regime.
• Biya has promised especially the young Cameroonians and women that their "best is yet to come", and will be pressed to address high levels of dissatisfaction and pent-up frustration.
• Over 40% of Cameroonians live below the poverty line, and urban unemployment is running at 35%.
• The average Cameroonian is no more wealthy than in 1986, highlighting the need for significant reforms to address poverty and slow growth.

Statistics:

• 92%: The percentage of the vote won by Biya in the 2018 election.
• 35%: The percentage of the vote won by Tchiroma Bakary.
• 53.66%: Biya's reduced majority in the 2025 election.
• 40%: The percentage of Cameroonians living below the poverty line.
• 35%: The percentage of urban unemployment.
• 51%: The percentage of young Cameroonians who have considered emigrating.
• 11%: The combined score of opposition candidates in the 2025 election.
• 2032: The end of Biya's new seven-year term of office.

Sources:

• The Conversation -- Africa -- By David E Kiwuwa, Associate Professor of International Studies, University of Nottingham
• World Bank
• Afrobarometer survey (2024)