New Insights into Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma Prediction: A Systematic Review

Investigators from Merck have conducted a comprehensive systematic review of methods for forecasting non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) cases in the US. The study aimed to identify the most robust projection method applicable to NHL disease settings. According to the research, validated projections of NHL cases are crucial for various stakeholders, including healthcare providers and biopharmaceutical companies. The review focused on literature from 2002 to 2024 and identified 29 studies that met the inclusion criteria for evaluating projection methods.

Key Takeaways:

• The study found that the average absolute relative deviation (AARD) and percent variation (VAR%) were the most appropriate methods for evaluating cancer incidence and prevalence projection, respectively.
• The joinpoint regression model was determined as the most robust method for projecting NHL incidence in the US, with an AARD of 1.6%.
• The projection method with assumptions of a 52.8% cure rate, a cure beginning ten years post-diagnosis, and all surviving patients cured after 20 years was identified as the most robust method for projecting NHL prevalence, with a VAR% of 8.3%.
• Unfortunately, no robust method was identified for projecting the number of treatment-eligible NHL patients by line of therapy (LoT).
• The study concluded that further research is needed to validate and project the number of treatment-eligible NHL patients by LoT.
• Authors including Changxia Shao, James R. Rogers, Mehmet Burcu, and Helmneh M. Sineshaw contributed to the research, which was funded by Merck.
• The study's findings have important implications for healthcare providers, biopharmaceutical companies, and patients affected by NHL.

Statistics:

• 29 studies were included in the review for evaluating projection methods, with 58.6% using the relative difference method.
• The AARD of 1.6% and VAR% of 8.3% were reported for the joinpoint regression model and the most robust projection method, respectively.
• The study found that 20 years post-diagnosis, all surviving patients are cured in the projection method for NHL prevalence.
• The review searched literature from January 2002 to April 2024.
• The most robust projection methods for NHL incidence and prevalence were identified through a comprehensive search in MEDLINE and EMBASE databases.

Sources:

• Evaluation and forecasting methods to estimate number of patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma: a systematic literature review. Population Health Metrics, 2025;23(1):57.
• BioMed Central: www.biomedcentral.com/
• Population Health Metrics: www.pophealthmetrics.com
• Merck & Company Inc.: Rahway, NJ, 07065, United States.