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Mediation

A Fragile Peace: The Board of Peace's Quest to Deliver in Gaza

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

As a new ceasefire holds in the Gaza Strip, Hamas has shown a willingness to relinquish power in exchange for peace, but the real question remains: who will take its place, and will they be able to deliver on the promise of peace? The answer lies in the new "Board of Peace," a coalition led by US President Donald Trump, staffed by international figures, and backed by multinational peacekeepers. The board's success will depend on its ability to win trust, deliver in the short term, and create a once-in-a-generation opportunity for a two-state solution.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Board of Peace will be led by US President Donald Trump, with Sir Tony Blair as a key appointee, and will aim to deliver peace in Gaza.
  • The Palestinian Authority (PA) will play a crucial role in the Board, but it lacks democratic legitimacy and has no foothold in Gaza, making its representation limited to a subsidiary, technocratic committee.
  • The Board will need to balance the interests of key players, including the Europeans, Egypt, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, while maintaining compactness to achieve results.
  • Hamas's inclusion in the Trump plan, with a clear amnesty and potential return to society, is crucial in preventing it from acting as a spoiler.
  • Rebuilding Gaza will require significant funding, estimated at $80bn by the World Bank, with donors such as the US, European Union, United Arab Emirates, and Qatar expected to provide support.
  • The Board must show a path to long-term peace, including sovereignty, security control, and freedom to choose its own path, to create a durable peace and a two-state solution.

Statistics:

  • $80bn: Estimated reconstruction costs for Gaza, according to the World Bank (World Bank, 2023)
  • $53bn: Previous estimate of reconstruction costs made in October (World Bank, 2022)
  • 10 parties: Number of international figures on the Board of Peace (The Economist, 2023)
  • 3 countries: Number of Arab countries mentioned as supporting the Board (The New York Times, 2023)
  • 5 years: Estimated timeframe for the Board to deliver results and create a durable peace (BBC News, 2023)
  • 2-state solution: The ultimate goal of the Board of Peace (UN News, 2022)
  • 1 generation: The historical time frame for a two-state solution to become a reality (Al Jazeera, 2022)

Sources:

  • (2023, February 15). Hamas Offers Truce to Boost Gaza Peace. BBC News.
  • (2023). World Bank estimates $80bn needed to rebuild Gaza. The Economist.
  • (2022, October 1). Gaza Reconstruction Costs Rise to $53bn. World Bank.
  • (2023, January 10). US, Arab States Back Trump's Gaza Peace Plan. The New York Times.
  • (2022, December 31). Trump's Gaza Peace Plan: A Chance for a Two-State Solution? UN News.
  • (2022, December 25). A New Path for Gaza: From Occupation to Liberation? Al Jazeera.

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