A Theory Tested: Deliberative Polling Exposes Bias in Iowa Caucuses

During the Democratic primary season, a novel experiment in deliberative polling was conducted among over 700 people, selected to represent the general public. The aim was to gauge how informed voters would perceive the presidential candidates, rather than relying on small, unrepresentative states to anoint the nominee. The results suggest that Senator John Edwards might have had a better chance of winning the presidency if people across the country had been able to vet the candidates and consider the issues. Edwards' surge in the well-informed test group was driven by his personal traits and policies, particularly his protectionism on trade, which appealed not only to Democrats but also to independents and Republicans.

Key Takeaways:

• The deliberative poll showed that a representative national sample of voters preferred Senator John Edwards over John Kerry and George W. Bush.
• Edwards' personal traits and policies, especially his protectionism on trade, contributed to his surge in popularity among the well-informed voters.
• The test group's voters preferred Edwards to Kerry and Bush due to his ability to present well-informed arguments and address issues on trade, which resonated with a wide range of voters.
• The study's findings suggest a flaw in the traditional primary process, where small, unrepresentative states' voters influence the nomination, potentially leading to a less popular candidate winning.
• Senator Edwards' strong performance against Bush demonstrates his appeal among voters beyond the Democratic Party.
• The deliberative poll's results indicate that voters' choices are often influenced by factors other than the policy positions of the candidates, such as personal traits and the ability to connect with voters.
• The study's results can be applied to future presidential elections to improve the nomination process and ensure a more informed and representative choice.

Statistics:

• Over 700 people participated in the deliberative poll, representatives of the general public.
• Senator John Edwards enjoyed the biggest surge in the well-informed test group, driven by his personal traits and policies.
• Only 10% of voters in an April National Annenberg Election Survey reported paying less in federal taxes this year compared to the previous year due to the tax cut.
• 22% of voters in a March New York Times/CBS News poll said that Bush policy lowered their federal tax bills, while 46% reported no change, and 25% blamed Bush for higher taxes.
• Only 1 in 20 voters in a New York Times/CBS News poll expected lower taxes under either Kerry or Bush.

Sources:

• James Fishkin and colleagues conducted the study with over 700 participants, creating a group of well-informed voters by providing them with home computers and exposing them to the candidates' commercials and policy positions.
• The study was conducted in January on the day of the Iowa caucuses and ran for five weeks, testing the impact of informed voters on the outcome of the primary.
• The National Annenberg Election Survey at the University of Pennsylvania conducted a poll in April to gauge taxpayers' perceptions of the tax cuts.
• The New York Times/CBS News Polls in March and April were used to gather voters' opinions on Bush policy and their federal tax bills.
• Michael Kranish and the three Boston Globe reporters wrote a biography of John Kerry, which included information about Kerry and Bush's debate at Yale over school busing.