Sign in Subscribe
Ambassadors

Aftermath of US-Iran Conflict: Experts Weigh In on Next Steps

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

As the global community continues to reel from the US bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities, expert Daniel Shapiro, former US ambassador to Israel, shed light on the potential consequences of the attack and the path forward for regional diplomacy. Shapiro emphasized that while the Iranian regime is weakened, it is not necessarily diminished, and that a strong message of deterrence is crucial to prevent further escalation.

Key Takeaways:

  • The US bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities has caused significant damage, but it has also created a window of opportunity for diplomacy to prevail.
  • The Iranian regime prioritizes the preservation of the regime over any other consideration, and the US should avoid regime change as a goal.
  • A strong message of deterrence from the US is essential to prevent further Iranian aggression, and the country should be prepared to respond firmly to any attack on US forces or allies.
  • The EU and Gulf partners are crucial in helping to facilitate a de-escalatory path forward, and finding mutually beneficial solutions that address Iranian concerns and priorities.
  • A potential de-escalatory phase could involve additional commitments from Iran to end support for terrorist organizations, in exchange for greater sanctions relief.
  • The risk of other powers in the region now pursuing nuclear weapons is a concern, but it is also a motivator for the US to work towards a peaceful resolution.

Statistics:

  • Iran had amassed 10 bombs' worth of near-weapons-grade uranium, as documented by the IEA.
  • The US has a strong message of deterrence, emphasizing that if Iran chooses to attack US forces or allies, there will be a very strong response.
  • 2020 saw a single Iranian strike on a US base in response to the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, resulting in US wounded and bringing the conflict towards a de-escalatory path.
  • Iranian allies in the region are getting weaker due to the ongoing conflict.

Sources:

  • IEA
  • US Pentagon
  • Daniel Shapiro, former US ambassador to Israel, in an interview with Ayesha Rascoe on NPR

Read more