AT&T's T-Mobile Bid Faces Long Odds, Analyst Warns

The US Department of Justice's bid to block AT&T's purchase of T-Mobile USA has significant backing from top-ranked analyst Craig Moffett, who asserts that the deal faces low probability of success. In a Bloomberg TV interview, Moffett stated that the DOJ's push for a four-player market structure in the wireless industry suggests that the regulator is prioritizing lower consumer prices over other objectives, such as sustaining investment in the sector.

Key Takeaways:

• Moffett believes the Department of Justice's decision to block the AT&T-T-Mobile deal will likely be upheld, citing the regulator's emphasis on maintaining a four-player market structure in the wireless industry.
• The analyst suggests that the US government is prioritizing lower consumer prices in its regulatory policy, potentially at the expense of other objectives like sustaining investment in the sector.
• The Verizon-Cable deal announced last week creates a new industry structure, leaving T-Mobile and Sprint on the outside looking in as they lack sufficient spectrum for a 4G strategy.
• Clearwire's partnership with Sprint is considered positive for the company, but its long-term prospects remain uncertain due to the shifting landscape of the wireless industry.
• The wireless industry is moving towards a duopoly structure, with the big players pushing towards a stable and more lucrative market.

Statistics:

• 2011: The year in which the interview with Craig Moffett took place.
• August: The month in which the Department of Justice filed to block the AT&T-T-Mobile deal.
• 4G strategy: The wireless industry's move towards a higher-speed data network, which requires sufficient spectrum.
• 3-player and 4-player market: The industry structure proposed by the regulator, with a 4-player market considered more stable and lucrative.

Sources:

• Bloomberg TV
• Bloomberg News
• Sanford Bernstein (Craig Moffett's analyst firm)

Note: This analysis is based on the provided Bloomberg TV transcript, citing Craig Moffett's statements and opinions.