Sign in Subscribe
Commodity futures

Bearish Surprise: USDA Crop Report Sparks Market Concerns

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Traders on the Chicago Board of Trade's agricultural floor reacted with surprise to the September crop report from the US Department of Agriculture, deeming it bearish for corn and soybean futures while being generally neutral for US wheat futures. The report estimated US soybean production at 2.856 billion bushels, exceeding analysts' expectations, but fell short of last year's record crop. The USDA also forecast US corn production at 10.639 billion bushels, topping pre-report estimates but below last year's record. Meanwhile, the agency's estimate for US wheat ending stocks was below analysts' expectations, sparking concerns among market participants.

Key Takeaways:

  • The USDA's September crop report was deemed bearish for corn and soybean futures, with traders expecting CBOT soybean futures to open 10-20 cents per bushel lower and corn futures to open 10 cents lower.
  • The government's soybean crop estimate of 2.856 billion bushels topped analysts' pre-report expectations, but fell short of last year's record crop of 3.141 billion bushels.
  • The USDA forecast US corn production at 10.639 billion bushels, exceeding pre-report estimates, but below last year's record crop of 11.807 billion bushels.
  • The agency's estimate for US wheat ending stocks was below analysts' expectations, with the USDA forecasting 624 million bushels, while analysts' estimated 634 million.
  • The USDA's forecast for US soybean ending stocks was above analysts' estimates, with 205 million bushels reported, while corn stocks were seen at 2.079 billion bushels, exceeding analysts' estimates of 1.817 billion.

Statistics:

  • US soybean production estimate: 2.856 billion bushels (vs. 2.811 billion bushels in pre-report estimates)
  • US average soybean yield: 39.6 bushels per acre
  • US corn production estimate: 10.639 billion bushels (vs. 10.301 billion bushels in pre-report estimates)
  • US average corn yield: 143.2 bushels per acre
  • US wheat ending stocks estimate: 624 million bushels (vs. 634 million in analysts' estimates)
  • US soybean ending stocks estimate: 205 million bushels (vs. 191 million in analysts' estimates)

Sources:

  • Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex
  • Dow Jones Newswires
  • Susan Schwendener, Dow Jones Newswires

Read more