Biden's Immigration Policy Vulnerability: Republicans See an Opportunity Ahead of Midterm Elections

As ambitious Republicans gear up for the midterm elections and statewide races, a familiar face, Stephen Miller, is urging the party to capitalize on President Joe Biden's sagging poll numbers on immigration. Miller, who was the architect of former President Donald Trump's immigration policy, has been discussing with Republican Party officials and candidates how to elevate immigration as a central issue in the national dialogue. Immigration is expected to vex Democrats, with the ebbs and flows of migration patterns largely out of the president's control. The Biden administration's immigration policy challenges have been exacerbated by criticism from both the left and the right, including the White House's about-face on compensating migrant families separated under the Trump administration.

Key Takeaways:

• Republican strategists expect immigration to play a significant role in primaries this year, particularly in more conservative districts where candidates are underperforming among Republican voters.
• Focusing solely on immigration is unlikely to help sway swing voters, but will instead be cited as a failure of the Biden administration.
• In Arizona, state Attorney General Mark Brnovich has sued the Biden administration over immigration policies, listing border security in a video launching his campaign for the Senate.
• In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott has challenged policies in court and hammered the Biden administration over the arrival of thousands of migrants at the US southern border.
• Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar of Texas has expressed concerns about the administration's approach to the border, saying constituents believe Democrats are "pretty much more open borders."
• The Biden administration has held on to some Trump-era policies, including a public health order allowing for the swift expulsion of migrants encountered at the border.
• Immigrant advocacy groups have expressed disappointment with the administration maintaining Trump-era border policies and expelling thousands of migrants.
• Anti-immigrant groups see an opportunity to lean into immigration this year, planning to invest millions in issue-based ads and roll out Spanish-language ads.

Statistics:

• The Quinnipiac University poll found President Biden's approval rating at 33% approve to 53% disapprove, with 13% not offering opinions.
• A survey found that Biden's approval ratings on immigration (40%) stood below his overall approval number at the time.
• The administration has held on to some Trump-era policies, including a public health order allowing for the swift expulsion of migrants encountered at the border, and a policy forcing migrants to stay in Mexico until their US immigration court dates.
• In 2020, Trump made inroads among voters in Hispanic areas nationwide, despite his hardline immigration policies.
• The Republican National Committee plans to capitalize on Trump's success and ramp up its outreach to Hispanic voters.

Sources:

• CNN: "As midterm elections loom, Republicans see an opportunity to capitalize on Biden's immigration woes"
• Quinnipiac University: "Quinnipiac University Poll: Biden Approval Hits New Low at 33% Approve, 53% Disapprove"
• America's Voice: "Frank Sharry, President of America's Voice, on the Biden Administration's Immigration Policy"
• Federation for American Immigration Reform: "Dan Stein, President of the Federation for American Immigration Reform, on the Republican Party's immigration policy"
• NALEO Educational Fund: "Arturo Vargas, Chief Executive Officer of NALEO Educational Fund, on the importance of campaign ads in English and Spanish"
• Republican National Committee: "Emma Vaughn, Spokesperson for the Republican National Committee, on the party's outreach to Hispanic voters"