Biden's Middle East Ceasefire: A Complex Balance of Interests

The world breathed a sigh of relief as the Middle East ceasefire went into effect, with US President Joe Biden emerging from a "politically perilous threesided vise" of competing imperatives. The ceasefire that went into effect Friday morning was the result of a delicate balance of interests, with the Israeli government demanding US backing, progressive Democrats pressing for a more even-handed approach, and Palestinians appealing to Biden's sense of justice and mercy.

Key Takeaways:

• The ceasefire was brokered through a combination of Biden's "quiet, relentless diplomacy" and the intervention of Egyptian diplomats, with Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi hoping for global redemption.
• The break from hostilities was described as "fragile" by sources on all sides of the conflict, with veteran US diplomats playing down the likelihood of aid making a significant difference in the Palestinian territories.
• The President's evolving position on the conflict reflected a significant change from his position a decade ago, when he said, "Progress occurs in the Middle East when everyone knows there is simply no space between the United States and Israel."
• Biden's adjustments to his rhetoric were influenced by the broad social justice movement and the power of social media to disseminate troubling images, as well as the threat his Democratic allies posed to the US$735 million sale of precision-guided weapons to Israel.
• The President's reaction to the ceasefire was carefully calibrated to be even-handed, speaking of "the tragic deaths of so many civilians, including children" without specifying which side he was talking about.

Statistics:

• The ceasefire went into effect on Friday morning, providing a reprieve from rocket attacks for Israelis and pummelling for Palestinians.
• The US$735 million sale of precision-guided weapons to Israel was set in motion only days before the conflict erupted, posing a threat to Biden's Democratic allies.
• The conflict had lasted for 11 days, with Palestinians reportedly pummelled with bombs and Israelis facing rocket attacks.
• The United Nations will play a significant role in rebuilding and providing humanitarian relief, fortified with US dollars but with an uncertain ability to make headway.
• Tens of thousands of Palestinians have been detained by the Egyptian government, with many more killed during protests.

Sources:

• "The Globe and Mail", 2021
• US President Joe Biden, quoted in "The Globe and Mail", 2021
• Benjamen Radd, Center for Middle East Development at UCLA, quoted in "The Globe and Mail", 2021
• Donald McHenry, former US ambassador to the UN, quoted in "The Globe and Mail", 2021
• Representative Rashida Tlaib of Michigan, quoted in "The Globe and Mail", 2021