Biden's Middle East Diplomacy Gambit on Thin Ice

US President Joe Biden's efforts to calm the brewing conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East have hit a snag, with a hospital explosion in Gaza yesterday forcing him to cancel a key leg of his visit to the region.

Biden's trip to the Middle East was aimed at preventing the conflict from spreading across the region, tempering Israel's response to the October 7 attacks, and soothing fears in Arab capitals of a widening conflagration. However, the explosion on Tuesday at a hospital in Gaza killed hundreds of people, according to Palestinian officials, and has threatened to derail Biden's delicate diplomatic mission.

The hospital blast has shattered US planning to facilitate the release of American and other hostages held by Hamas and to create safe zones in Gaza ahead of a potential Israeli ground invasion. Instead, Biden's visit to Israel will now be read in many capitals in the region as the US "okaying the killing of people" in the hospital blast, according to Merissa Khurma, director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center.

The crisis has raised the stakes for Biden's efforts to maintain a balance between supporting Israel while also protecting Arab allies in the region.

Key Takeaways:

• Biden's visit to Israel risks associating him with a potential Israeli ground invasion of Gaza, which could trigger more anger at the US.
• The hospital explosion has shattered US planning to facilitate the release of American and other hostages held by Hamas and to create safe zones in Gaza ahead of a potential Israeli ground invasion.
• The crisis has raised the stakes for Biden's efforts to maintain a balance between supporting Israel while also protecting Arab allies in the region.
• US officials have not attributed the hospital explosion to Israel, but Biden has backed the Israeli version of events, saying the blast appeared to have been perpetrated by "the other team".
• The diplomatic fallout from the carnage in Gaza may still be unfolding, with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas pulling out of the planned meeting with Biden and the White House cancelling the second leg of the trip.
• Biden's visit will be read in many capitals in the region as the US "okaying the killing of people" in the hospital blast, according to Merissa Khurma.
• The US administration is struggling to navigate the complex web of alliances and rivalries in the region, with Biden facing criticism from both Israel and Arab leaders.

Statistics:

• Hundreds of people have been killed in the hospital explosion, according to Palestinian officials.
• The hospital explosion has shattered US planning to facilitate the release of American and other hostages held by Hamas.
• The crisis has raised the stakes for Biden's efforts to maintain a balance between supporting Israel while also protecting Arab allies in the region.
• Biden's visit to Israel will be his first as president, and it comes as tensions between Israel and Hamas continue to escalate.
• The US has provided over $3.8 billion in military aid to Israel since 2016, according to the Congressional Research Service.

Sources:

• White House officials
• Merissa Khurma, director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center
• John Kirby, co-ordinator for strategic communications at the National Security Council
• Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council's Middle East Program
• Aaron David Miller of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
• Palestinian officials