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Bolsonaro's Potential Presidential Bid Reignites Speculation over Successor

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas remains the favorite to succeed former President Jair Bolsonaro, according to analysts, amid mounting legal pressure on the latter. Mr. Freitas's ability to navigate various political spheres and maintain dialogue with key figures, including STF Justice Alexandre de Moraes, has led some to believe he could broker an agreement between the Executive branch, Congress, and the STF to annul any future convictions. If Mr. Bolsonaro backs him, it could increase his chances of winning, especially considering his moderate tone and ability to unite various factions. However, aides close to Mr. Freitas warn that he should stick with the plan to seek reelection, citing a strong likelihood of victory and the opportunity to complete ongoing projects.

Key Takeaways:

  • Senator Flávio Bolsonaro acknowledged the possibility that his father could step aside and support a political ally in exchange for judicial clemency, emphasizing that such a deal would require alignment with the STF.
  • Mr. Freitas is seen by some as the most viable figure to broker an agreement between the Executive branch, Congress, and the STF to annul any future convictions, given his ability to navigate various political spheres.
  • A Datafolha poll showed that, excluding Mr. Bolsonaro, Mr. Freitas is the contender who comes closest to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a potential runoff (42% to 43%).
  • Mr. Freitas's advisors do not rule out the possibility of him running for president, but he is cautious about appearing disloyal to Mr. Bolsonaro and would only accept the challenge if personally invited.
  • Various economic and social groups have signaled they would mobilize behind Mr. Freitas if he runs for president, while center-right and centrist parties see him as a unifying figure.
  • Other governors, including Ratinho Junior, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema, are positioning themselves for a potential presidential bid, which could create a crowded field and benefit President Lula in a first-round vote.
  • A debate over a presidential pardon for Mr. Bolsonaro is ongoing, with some leaders, including Pastor Silas Malafaia, supporting the idea, while others, like Mr. Freitas's allies, caution against it.

Statistics:

  • 42% of voters chose Governor Tarcísio de Freitas over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a potential runoff, according to a Datafolha poll (15).
  • Governor Freitas's support level stands at 43%, making him the closest contender to President Lula in a potential runoff.
  • 42% of voters chose former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro in a survey, while Federal Deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro received 28% and 25% respectively.
  • Mr. Freitas has repeatedly defended Mr. Bolsonaro's innocence and supported calls for amnesty for those convicted over the January 8 riots.

Sources:

  • Folha de S. Paulo
  • Valor
  • Datafolha
  • President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's Workers’ Party (PT)
  • Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's interview with Folha de S. Paulo
  • Senator Flávio Bolsonaro

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