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European Union

Brexit's Impact on Unemployment in the UK Assessed through Synthetic Control Method

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

A new report by University of Bucharest researchers has analyzed the impact of Brexit on unemployment in the UK, using the synthetic control method to examine the effects of the UK's withdrawal from the EU. The study evaluated the difference in unemployment rates in the UK before and after Brexit, identifying key economic factors that influenced monthly unemployment in the long and short run since February 2020. The findings suggest that there was a long-run relationship between inflation and economic growth and unemployment in the period between February 2020 and December 2022, with inflation acting as a factor that reduces unemployment.

Key Takeaways:

  • The UK's withdrawal from the EU (Brexit) presented a challenge for labor markets on both sides.
  • The study used the synthetic control method to assess the impact of Brexit on unemployment in the UK, comparing the actual unemployment rate with a hypothetical scenario where the UK remained in the EU.
  • The analysis covered the period from 1995 to 2022, using three types of donor pools: all EU member states prior to the 2004 Enlargement, a similar sample excluding Spain and Greece, and a pool based on the EU neighbors of the UK.
  • The sample based solely on EU neighbors provided the most accurate results, indicating a lower (but non-significant) unemployment rate in the absence of Brexit compared to the real situation.
  • The study identified a long-run relationship between inflation, economic growth, and unemployment in the period between February 2020 and December 2022, with inflation acting as a factor that reduces unemployment.
  • The research was conducted by Simionescu Mihaela and Wadim Strielkowski, with Mihaela Simionescu being the lead author.
  • The study was published in the Studia Universitatis Vasile Goldis Arad, Seria Stiinte Economice and is available online at https://doi-org.sdpl.idm.oclc.org/10.2478/sues-2025-0007.

Statistics:

  • The study covered the period from 1995 to 2022.
  • The synthetic control method was used to analyze the impact of Brexit on unemployment in the UK.
  • The sample based on EU neighbors indicated a lower (but non-significant) unemployment rate in the absence of Brexit compared to the real situation.
  • Inflation acted as a factor that reduces unemployment in the period between February 2020 and December 2022.

Sources:

  • The Impact of Brexit on Unemployment In The United Kingdom Using Synthetic Control Method. Studia Universitatis Vasile Goldis Arad, Seria Stiinte Economice, 2025,35(2):38-64.
  • https://doi-org.sdpl.idm.oclc.org/10.2478/sues-2025-0007
  • Studia Universitatis Vasile Goldis Arad, Seria Stiinte Economice - http://publicatii.uvvg.ro/index.php/studiaeconomia

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