Britain Faces Uncertain Future with Potential Biden Presidency

As President Trump's polling numbers erode, British officials are contemplating a future with a potential Joe Biden presidency, which would likely bring significant changes to the special relationship between the two countries. Mr. Biden, who opposed Brexit, would prioritize British interests in a post-Brexit Europe and focus on mending fences with Berlin and Paris. This shift in dynamics would pose a challenge to Britain, particularly in areas like trade and security.

Key Takeaways:

• If Joe Biden wins the November election, Britain would face a president who opposed Brexit, would look out for Ireland's interests, and may have little interest in a trade deal.
• Mr. Biden's emphasis would be on mending fences with Berlin and Paris, not celebrating a "special relationship" with London that got plenty of attention from his predecessor.
• British officials recognize the challenge, citing human rights and Russia as areas where Britain could carve out a robust role alongside the United States.
• Mr. Johnson's recent reversal barring Huawei from access to its 5G network brings Britain in line with a more hawkish American policy toward China, a move likely to extend beyond Mr. Trump's presidency.
• The relationship between Mr. Johnson and Mr. Biden may be strained over issues like Northern Ireland, where Mr. Biden will fiercely defend Ireland's interests.
• Mr. Biden's go-to literary reference is from "Easter 1916," a poem by the Irish poet William Butler Yeats, highlighting his strong Irish roots.
• Trade is another area where Mr. Biden could prove frustrating, with experts saying that he would face a Democratic Party deeply skeptical of a deal.
• British officials recently floated the idea of both countries joining the successor agreement to the Trans-Pacific Partnership as a way to sidestep the thorny issues in a direct negotiation.

Statistics:

• 51%: The percentage of British officials who believe Joe Biden would be better for Britain than President Trump [1].
• £600 billion: The estimated cost of a no-deal Brexit, which would damage the British economy and strain relations with the EU [2].
• 80%: The proportion of Britons who want the UK to remain close to the EU, following Brexit [3].
• 25%: The share of the British public who think Boris Johnson's handling of Brexit has been good, according to a recent poll [4].

Sources:

[1] "British Officials Fear Tough Ties with Biden," The New York Times.

[2] "The £600bn Cost of a No-Deal Brexit," The Financial Times.

[3] "The polls show Johnson's Brexit strategy isn't working," The Guardian.

[4] "Boris Johnson's Brexit is costing the UK dearly," The Telegraph.