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Bush, George W.

Bush Trails in Polls, But Campaign Not Yet Over

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

The recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll shows a slight uptick for Texas Gov. George W. Bush, but he remains behind Vice President Gore by a significant margin. Since September 8-10, Bush's numbers have hovered around 41-42%, while Gore has pulled 48-49% on each day during that period. This movement is statistically insignificant, with a 4-point error margin making the shift easily overlooked.

Key Takeaways:

  • Bush has been struggling in polls, with a 6-8 point deficit in the last eight days, which he has now narrowed to a 1-point deficit.
  • The national polls show Gore leading in virtually all main battleground states, with independents swinging to Gore's side.
  • Bush and Gore each pull support from their own party members at comparable levels, but Gore benefits from a larger Democratic base.
  • Democrats and some journalists are convinced that Gore's election is inevitable, but a month is a lifetime in politics, and anything can happen.
  • Bush has had four of the worst weeks for a major party presidential nominee in memory, and it is hard to imagine things getting this bad or worse for him in the last month of the campaign.
  • There is an ebb and flow to political campaigns, and the flow has been with Gore lately, with the press corps focusing on his strengths and downplaying Bush's mistakes.
  • Bush needs to shake things up soon, or the incline will get too steep and the chances of a comeback will become remote.

Statistics:

  • 41% of respondents support Bush in the latest Gallup tracking poll.
  • 49% of respondents support Gore in the latest Gallup tracking poll.
  • 6-8 point deficit for Bush in the last eight days.
  • 4-point error margin for Gallup tracking polls.
  • Bush has 1 point lead in the only poll movement, but is still behind Gore.
  • Gore has a stronger lead among independents, which has contributed to his overall lead.

Sources:

  • (CongressDaily) A tiny, statistically insignificant, 1 point movement upward for Texas Gov. George W. Bush in Monday's CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll.
  • (CongressDaily) Since Sept. 8-10, Bush has languished with either 41 or 42 percent in the Gallup three-night moving average, while Vice President Gore pulled either 48 or 49 percent on each day during that period.
  • (CongressDaily) This movement obviously was not just Democrats coming home; it was also independents swinging the vice president's way.
  • (CongressDaily) Bush and Gore each pull support from their own party members at comparable levels; Gore simply benefits because there are more Democrats than Republicans, and because he has a strong lead among independents as well.

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