Canada's EU Defence Pact Faces Major Obstacles: Experts

A new security and defence pact signed by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney with the European Union is facing significant obstacles, according to a risk analysis report set to be released Wednesday. The report, authored by a team of experts including retired vice-admiral Mark Norman, warns of potential punishment from Washington if Ottawa moves away from U.S. defence suppliers, as well as challenges in raising military spending. The report notes that Canada's approach to national security and economic growth is undergoing a significant turning point, as it seeks to reduce its reliance on the United States for defence needs.

Key Takeaways:

• The Security and Defence Partnership signed by Prime Minister Carney faces major obstacles, including potential punishment from Washington if Ottawa moves away from U.S. defence suppliers.
• The report warns of significant challenges in raising military spending, including a poor record of buying military equipment on time and within budget.
• Canada's defence budget will need to increase by about $48 billion on a permanent basis to meet the new NATO target of 3.5% of GDP.
• The report notes that internal divisions among NATO allies, such as Spain's decision to opt out of the 5-per-cent target, will make it difficult for Canada to implement the EU defence pact.
• Canadian provincial governments represent a "weak link" in delivering critical minerals for EU supply chains, with regulatory delays and Indigenous consultations causing projects to be delayed by 2 to 3 years.
• Many EU member states are at risk of failing to raise defence spending to NATO's new 5-per-cent target, with some needing to make deep cuts to other public spending or substantial tax hikes.

Statistics:

• Canada's military equipment purchases are currently about 75% from the United States.
• The European Union's defence spending is expected to rise to $1.25 trillion by 2035.
• Canada's current defence spend is approximately 1% of GDP.
• Raising military spending by 2.5% to meet the new NATO target would require adding about $48 billion to the defence budget on a permanent basis.
• NATO's new 5-per-cent target is expected to require deep cuts to other public spending or substantial tax hikes in many EU member states.

Sources:

• A risk analysis report set to be released Wednesday, authored by a team of experts including retired vice-admiral Mark Norman, former national security and intelligence adviser Vincent Rigby, former deputy international trade minister Tim Sargent, former defence minister Perrin Beatty, and chancellor's professor and professor of international affairs at Carleton University Fen Hampson.
• Canadian government statements regarding the Security and Defence Partnership and NATO commitments.
• Data from NATO and EU defence spending reports.