Change Management Framework for Energy Transition in Oil-Rich Countries

Research from Shahid Beheshti University aims to overcome energy transition challenges in oil-rich countries, with a focus on Iran. The study identified 33 key challenges and ranked them using a multi-criteria decision-making method. The analysts found that political, governance, and institutional challenges are the most influential obstacles to energy transition, followed by infrastructural, economic, geopolitical, regulatory, market, and environmental challenges. The research suggests integrating the Multiple Streams Framework, Advocacy Coalition Framework, and Punctuated Equilibrium Theory to accelerate energy transition.

Key Takeaways:

• 33 key challenges were identified and classified into seven groups: political, governance, and institutional; infrastructural; economic; geopolitical; regulatory; market; and environmental.
• Multi-criteria decision-making method was used to rank the challenges, with political, governance, and institutional challenges ranked as the most influential.
• Long-term trends related to energy transition indicators were analyzed using time series analysis of World Bank data from 1990-2022.
• Plausible scenarios were developed using the Cross-Impact Balance method, resulting in 7 scenarios, with transformative transition and structural stagnation being identified as the most favorable and warning scenarios, respectively.
• The integration of the Multiple Streams Framework, Advocacy Coalition Framework, and Punctuated Equilibrium Theory was identified as an operational tool to reduce resistance, build consensus, and accelerate structural reforms in energy policy.
• The proposed change management framework aims to assist policymakers in accelerating the energy transition in oil-rich countries.

Statistics:

• 33 key challenges were identified in the study.
• 7 groups of challenges were classified: political, governance, and institutional; infrastructural; economic; geopolitical; regulatory; market; and environmental.
• 7 plausible scenarios were developed using the Cross-Impact Balance method.
• Iran's dependence on fossil fuels was found to be high compared to global decarbonization trends, with a growing gap identified in time series analysis.
• The proposed framework aims to reduce resistance, build consensus, and accelerate structural reforms in energy policy.

Sources:

• "Change management in Iran's energy policies: analyzing the transition process from fossil fuels to renewable energies." Energy Conversion and Management: X, 2025, 28():101269.
• NewsRx. Researchers from Shahid Beheshti University Report Recent Findings in Energy Conversion and Management (Change management in Iran's energy policies: analyzing the transition process from fossil fuels to renewable energies). Energy Weekly News. October 17, 2025; p 704.
• Ali Asghar Sadabadi, Narges Shahi, Faezeh Borhani. "Change management in Iran's energy policies: analyzing the transition process from fossil fuels to renewable energies." Energy Conversion and Management: X, 2025, 28():101269.