China Trade Bill at Risk of Delay Until Next Year

Unless the China trade bill comes up for a vote by May, it could be delayed until next year, putting it at serious risk, according to Representative Robert T. Matsui, the top Democratic vote counter in the House. Matsui stated that support for granting China permanent normal trading privileges was eroding day by day among House Democrats as unions increased their opposition to the bill. The administration's effort to have Congress surrender its annual vote on China trade faces a much tougher fight in the House, where many legislators oppose rewarding Beijing at a time when opponents criticize China's record on human rights, workers' conditions, and environmental standards.

Key Takeaways:

• The China trade bill may be delayed until next year if it does not come up for a vote by May, putting it at serious risk.
• Representative Robert T. Matsui, the top Democratic vote counter in the House, stated that support for granting China permanent normal trading privileges was eroding day by day among House Democrats.
• Administration officials sought to play down Matsui's remarks as nothing new, but Commerce Secretary William M. Daley expressed concerns that a vote in May was essential for passage.
• House Democratic leaders are under pressure from Speaker J. Dennis Hastert to schedule a floor vote on the issue before the Memorial Day recess.
• At least 70 to 80 House Democrats are likely to support the measure, but Matsui and other backers of the bill said they could not pin down the scores of uncommitted lawmakers until a voting date had been set.
• Some House Democrats are weighing whether they may be able to balance their vote for the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act with one for the China trade bill.
• Representative David E. Bonior of Michigan, the top vote counter for Democrats opposed to permanent trading status, is expected to release the names of about 15 Democrats who have voted for trading relations annually but would oppose permanent status.

Statistics:

• 90-100 votes are being demanded by House Republican leaders from House Democrats before scheduling the decisive floor vote on the China trade bill.
• 150 Republicans are expected to vote for the measure, which would give China permanent low-tariff access to the United States market.
• About 15 Democrats are expected to oppose the China trade bill, with at least five being freshmen.

Sources:

• "Unless the China trade bill comes up for a vote by May, it could be delayed until next year, putting it at serious risk, the measure's top Democratic vote counter in the House predicted today." (The New York Times, not dated)
• "We will have a vote, but it may not be this year," Mr. Matsui said in an interview, underscoring his remarks Monday at a trade forum. (The New York Times, not dated)
• "I have always believed that if we do not have this in May, it will be very difficult to pass," Commerce Secretary William M. Daley said in an interview. (The New York Times, not dated)