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Economic growth

China's Economic Resilience Gains International Recognition

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

As the International Monetary Fund (IMF) updated its World Economic Outlook, it significantly raised its 2025 forecast for China's economic growth to 4.8% from 4%, a 0.8 percentage point increase based on the strong performance of the Chinese economy in the first half of the year. This upward revision demonstrates the resilience of the Chinese economy, despite an uncertain external environment and a fragile global economic recovery.

The IMF report highlights China's economic development as "Fragile Resilience Amid Persistent Uncertainty." International investment banks, such as Deutsche Bank, have also raised their growth forecasts for the Chinese economy, citing its long-term competitiveness. The Chinese economy's resilience is gaining international recognition, with the IMF attributing the upward revision of China's economic growth forecast to domestic demand, exports, and innovation.

Key Takeaways:

  • The IMF raised its 2025 forecast for China's economic growth to 4.8% from 4%, a 0.8 percentage point increase.
  • China's economic growth has demonstrated remarkable resilience, with the country responding effectively to the impact of a complex international situation by optimizing its policy environment and carrying out structural reforms.
  • Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth in the first half of this year, with final consumption expenditure contributing 52%.
  • Exports have provided strong support for China's economic growth, with merchandise trade reaching a new high in 2024.
  • Technological innovation has significantly enhanced the endogenous driving force of China's economy, promoting the development of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing.
  • China's added value of equipment manufacturing above a designated size increased by 9% in May 2025, contributing 54.3% to industrial production.
  • China's stable economic growth has provided solid support for the global economy, despite uncertainties in global economic growth.
  • The Chinese economy has a positive impact on the global economy through trade channels, with total import and export volumes exceeding $6 trillion.

Statistics:

  • The IMF raised its 2025 forecast for China's economic growth by 0.8 percentage points, from 4% to 4.8%.
  • Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth in the first half of this year.
  • Final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to GDP growth in the first half of this year.
  • China's merchandise trade reached a new high in 2024.
  • China's added value of equipment manufacturing above a designated size increased by 9% in May 2025.
  • China's total import and export volumes exceeded $6 trillion.
  • China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025.

Sources:

  • Liang Tong, Economic Daily correspondent in Geneva
  • International Monetary Fund (IMF)
  • Deutsche Bank
  • Morgan Stanley
  • Goldman Sachs
  • https://www.nmg.gov.cn/zwyw/qgyw/202508/t20250804_2768610.html

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