China's Grain Production Under Threat: Climate Change Exposes Food Security Risks

As the nation grapples with the increasing risks of climate change, China's food security and agricultural production are facing severe challenges. Researchers at KeAi journal China Economic Quarterly International have estimated the overall adaptation level and mechanisms of grain production to climate change in China, revealing that adaptive behaviors have alleviated 52.5% to 63.5% of the adverse impacts of high temperatures, with rice and maize more adaptable than wheat. However, excessive precipitation has not been effectively mitigated by adaptive behavior.

Key Takeaways:

• Researchers Liu Dong, Feng Xiaolong, and Si Wei estimated that adaptive behaviors have alleviated 52.5% to 63.5% of the adverse impacts of high temperatures on grain production in China.
• Rice and maize are more adaptable to high temperatures than wheat, with a difference in adaptation levels identified among crops.
• Grain production in the northern region is more adaptable to high temperatures than that in the southern region.
• Technological progress can mitigate 31.8% of the adverse impacts of high temperatures on grain production.
• Adoption of conservation tillage can significantly mitigate the adverse impacts of high temperatures on grain yield per mu, especially for wheat and maize.
• Improving agricultural infrastructure and water resource management is essential to enhance the adaptation level and resilience of grain production to climate risks.
• The study highlights the severity of the adverse impacts of excessive precipitation on grain production and the urgent need to enhance the adaptation level.

Statistics:

• 52.5% to 63.5% of adverse impacts of high temperatures on grain production alleviated by adaptive behaviors.
• 31.8% of adverse impacts of high temperatures on grain production mitigated by technological progress.
• 52% of rice and maize more adaptable to high temperatures than wheat.
• Grain production in the northern region more adaptable to high temperatures than that in the southern region by 10.2% (east-west) and 12.5% (north-south).

Sources:

• Liu Dong, Feng Xiaolong, and Si Wei. "Adaptation to Climate Change in Grain Production: Evidence from China." China Economic Quarterly International 10.2 (2025): 1-12.