"Circuit Breaker" Lockdowns Considered Amid Rising Covid-19 Cases

Amid growing concerns about the spread of Covid-19, experts are suggesting that a temporary "circuit break" of national lockdown measures could slow the virus's spread while giving NHS Test and Trace more time to improve. The approach would involve additional social distancing measures to reduce the R number below one for a short period, potentially driving down new infections by as much as half. However, other experts have questioned whether a limited lockdown period of two weeks would be effective in controlling the virus's transmission.

Key Takeaways:

• Professor Mark Woolhouse of Edinburgh University suggests that a "circuit breaker" lockdown could reduce the number of new infections by as much as half if the R number fell to a value similar to that during lockdown.
• The aim of a "circuit breaker" lockdown is to reduce the R number well below one for a short period, with two weeks having been suggested as a potential duration.
• However, other experts have questioned whether a two-week lockdown period would be sufficient to assess the effectiveness of new restrictions and may end up causing disruption without delivering the benefits of a full lockdown.
• Professor Rowland Kao of Edinburgh University warns that two weeks may be insufficient time to fully assess the impact of restrictions and may not be enough to reduce the R number below one under current circumstances.
• The concept of a "circuit breaker" lockdown was introduced in April in Singapore by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, where schools and non-essential workplaces were closed, and restrictions were placed on restaurants and public places.
• Research by Oxford University suggests that the "Eat Out to Help Out" scheme may have contributed to a rise in infections, with there being twice as many diners in restaurants on Mondays to Wednesdays when the discount was available in 2020 compared to 2019.

Statistics:

• The expected duration of a "circuit breaker" lockdown, according to Professor Mark Woolhouse, is two weeks.
• The R number, which measures the reproduction rate of the virus, is estimated to be between 1.0 and 1.2 across the UK (Government Office for Science and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage)).
• Research by Oxford University found that there were twice as many diners in restaurants on Mondays to Wednesdays when the "Eat Out to Help Out" scheme was in place in 2020 compared to the same periods in 2019.
• The number of new infections could potentially be driven down by as much as half with a "circuit breaker" lockdown, according to Professor Mark Woolhouse.

Sources:

• "A TEMPORARY "circuit break" of national lockdown measures could slow the spread of Covid-19 while buying time for NHS Test and Trace to improve, an expert has suggested." - The Telegraph
• "The aim is to use additional social distancing measures to reduce the R number well below one for a short period; two weeks has been suggested." - Professor Mark Woolhouse, Edinburgh University
• "Crucially, two weeks will be insufficient time to fully assess the impact of those restrictions. Even if R drops below one, cases will continue at similar levels for some time." - Professor Rowland Kao, Edinburgh University
• "Again, this isn't to say that the scheme caused those cases. But it certainly didn't discourage those people from going out." - Research by Oxford University
• "It isn't something that we ever take off the table, but it isn't something that we want to see either." - UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock