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Climate change

Climate Action: Progress Made, But Outlook Still Dire

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Nations agreed through the Paris Agreement in 2015 to try to hold warming well under 2°C and ideally to 1.5°C. Almost ten years later, cutting emissions to the point of meeting the 1.5°C goal looks very difficult, with Earth tracking towards around 2.7°C average warming by 2100. This level of warming would represent "unprecedented peril" for life on this planet. However, humanity has shifted track enough to avert the worst climate future. Renewables, energy efficiency, and other measures have shifted the dial, making the worst-case scenario of expanded coal use, soaring emissions, and a much hotter world extremely unlikely.

Key Takeaways:

  • Global greenhouse gas emissions have risen since industrialisation began around 1850, with carbon dioxide (CO2) being far and away the most common greenhouse gas emitted.
  • In 2023, 41% of the world's energy-related CO2 emissions came from coal, mainly for electricity generation, while 32% came from burning oil in road vehicles, and 21% from natural gas used for heating buildings and industrial processes.
  • The world has experienced extreme weather events, including lethal heatwaves, devastating floods, and intense cyclones, with 2024 being the hottest year on record, temporarily hitting 1.5°C over the pre-industrial era.
  • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios show that Earth is tracking towards around 2.7°C of warming by 2100, which is between RCP 2.6 and 4.5.
  • The One Earth Climate Model outlines rapid pathways to decarbonise, setting an ambitious carbon budget of 450 gigatonnes of CO2 before reaching net zero.
  • The US, European Union, and China together hold a remaining carbon budget of 243 Gt CO2 to reach decarbonisation, with China requiring the largest carbon budget to reach decarbonisation.
  • Emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have not yet plateaued, but there has been real progress in sharply increasing renewable electricity generation, battery storage, and lower-cost electric vehicles.
  • The EU says its emissions fell by 8.3% in 2023 compared to 2022, with Europe's net emissions now 37% below 1990 levels, while the region's GDP grew 68% over the same period.

Statistics:

  • 41% of the world's energy-related CO2 emissions came from coal in 2023.
  • 32% of the world's energy-related CO2 emissions came from burning oil in road vehicles in 2023.
  • 21% of the world's energy-related CO2 emissions came from natural gas used for heating buildings and industrial processes in 2023.
  • 2024 was the hottest year on record, temporarily hitting 1.5°C over the pre-industrial era.
  • The world is tracking towards around 2.7°C of warming by 2100, which is between RCP 2.6 and 4.5.
  • The US, European Union, and China together hold a remaining carbon budget of 243 Gt CO2 to reach decarbonisation.
  • The EU's emissions fell by 8.3% in 2023 compared to 2022.
  • Europe's net emissions are now 37% below 1990 levels, while the region's GDP grew 68% over the same period.

Sources:

  • The Conversation (Au and NZ), Sven Teske, Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, 20 February 2025.
  • The Conversation (Au and NZ), Sven Teske, Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, Is climate action a lost cause? 20 February 2025.
  • IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fourth Assessment Report, 2007.
  • Sven Teske, Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, "Earth is heading for 2.7°C warming this century. We may avoid the worst climate scenarios -- but the outlook is still dire" 20 February 2025.

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