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Global warming

Climate Change Alters Disturbance Predisposition in Forests

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Research conducted by the Swiss Federal Institute of Forest Snow & Landscape Research has shed light on the impact of climate change on forests, highlighting the need for decision support systems in long-term forest planning. The study, published in the journal Forest Ecology and Management, focuses on the effects of climate change on close-to-nature forestry (CNF) strategies and their ability to adapt to climate change while sustaining ecosystem services and biodiversity (BES).

Key Takeaways:

  • Climate change is expected to dynamically alter disturbance predisposition across elevation gradients, with site-related predisposition to fire and bark beetle infestation increasing under climate change.
  • Stand-related predisposition to all disturbances varies with climate scenario and elevation, with moderate warming (SSP2-4.5) leading to increased predisposition to fire and windthrow across all elevations.
  • Severe warming (SSP5-8.5) results in long-term reductions in stand-related predisposition to fire, bark beetle infestation, and windthrow at lower elevations due to climate-change-induced shifts in forest dynamics.
  • Increasing management intensity generally reduces stand-related disturbance predisposition, but focusing solely on disturbance mitigation can lead to trade-offs, such as reduced BES provision.
  • Climate-adapted forest management must account for both stand-related and site-related predisposition to prioritize disturbance-prone 'hotspots', especially in areas of high BES value.
  • Reducing disturbance predisposition may involve trade-offs regarding BES provision but is crucial to avoid potential BES losses from severe disturbances.

Statistics:

  • Research conducted simulations for a forest enterprise in the Central Swiss Alps, covering a large elevation gradient, under three climate scenarios: historical, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5.
  • Six management strategies, including CNF variants with different management intensities and climate-adapted approaches, were considered in the simulations.
  • Results indicate that stand-related predisposition to fire and windthrow increased under moderate warming (SSP2-4.5) across all elevations.
  • Under severe warming (SSP5-8.5), long-term reductions in stand-related predisposition to fire, bark beetle infestation, and windthrow occurred at lower elevations.

Sources:

  • Beetles, Wind, and Fire: Effects of Climate Change and Close-to-nature Forestry On Disturbance Predisposition and Ecosystem Service Trade-offs (Forest Ecology and Management, 2025;586)
  • NewsRx (2025) New Climate Change Study Findings Have Been Reported by Investigators at Swiss Federal Institute of Forest Snow & Landscape Research (Beetles, Wind, and Fire: Effects of Climate Change and Close-to-nature Forestry On Disturbance Predisposition ...). Global Warming Focus. June 16, 2025; p 134.

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