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Climate change

Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Dam Safety Assessed Using Stochastic Rainfall Generator

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Research results published in the study "Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Dam Safety by Using a Stochastic Rainfall Generator" have provided valuable insights into the effects of climate change on dam safety. The study, conducted by a team of researchers from Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, aimed to develop a methodology to assess hydrological dam safety considering climate change. The team selected the Eugui Dam on the Arga river in northern Spain as a case study and used a stochastic rainfall generator, STORAGE, to simulate precipitation time series under current and future climate conditions. The results showed that the peak outflows at the Eugui Dam will be lower in the future, indicating that maximum reservoir water levels will not increase in the future.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study found that design floods, which are useful to assess possible dam breaks, are usually estimated through statistical analysis of rainfall and streamflow observed data, but such available samples are commonly limited, leading to high uncertainties in design flood estimates.
  • A stochastic rainfall generator, STORAGE, was proposed to assess hydrological dam safety by considering climate change, which involves simulating long time series of 15-min precipitation in both current and future climate conditions.
  • The study used precipitation projections of 12 climate modeling chains, related to three 30-year periods (2011-2024; 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) and two emission scenarios of AR5 (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), to consider climate change in the STORAGE model.
  • The simulated precipitation time series were transformed into runoff time series by using the continuous COSMO4SUB hydrological model, supplying continuous 15-min runoff time series as output.
  • The study concluded that maximum reservoir water levels will not increase in the future, and the proposed methodology could allow practitioners and dam managers to check the hydrological dam safety requirements, accounting for climate change.
  • The research team included Enrique Soriano, Luis Mediero, Andrea Petroselli, Davide Luciano De Luca, Ciro Apollonio, and Salvatore Grimaldi, who are affiliated with Universidad Politecnica de Madrid and Technical University Madrid.

Statistics:

  • 12 climate modeling chains were used to consider climate change in the STORAGE model.
  • 15-min precipitation time series were simulated using the STORAGE model for both current and future climate conditions.
  • 3 30-year periods (2011-2024; 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) and 2 emission scenarios of AR5 (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) were considered in the study.
  • 15-min runoff time series were supplied as output by the continuous COSMO4SUB hydrological model.
  • 12 climate modeling chains were used to consider climate change in the STORAGE model.

Sources:

  • Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Dam Hydrological Safety by Using a Stochastic Rainfall Generator. Hydrology, 2025,12(6):153. (Hydrology - http://www.mdpi.com/journal/hydrology)
  • NewsRx. Reports from Universidad Politecnica de Madrid Advance Knowledge in Climate Change (Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Dam Hydrological Safety by Using a Stochastic Rainfall Generator). Global Warming Focus. July 7, 2025; p 374.

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