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Global warming

Climate Change Impacts on Picea Species: New Insights from China

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Research conducted by a team from the Chinese Academy of Forestry has provided new insights into the impacts of climate change on Picea species. Using a MaxEnt model, the researchers simulated potentially suitable areas for 34 Picea species across various time periods, including the modern era, the Last Interglacial, the Last Glacial Maximum, the Mid-Holocene, and future periods under two different climate emission scenarios. The study found that the annual mean temperature (BIO17) and precipitation of the driest quarter (BIO01) were the primary climate factors influencing Picea dispersion.

Key Takeaways:

  • The researchers simulated potentially suitable areas for 34 Picea species across various time periods using the MaxEnt model, with financial support from the National Key Research & Development Program of China.
  • The study found that the total suitable area during the Last Interglacial period was 7.43 x 10^7 km^2, representing 93.34% of the current total suitable area.
  • The total suitable area during the Last Glacial Maximum period represents 76.31% of the current total suitable area.
  • The total suitable area during the Mid-Holocene period represents 96.11% of the current total suitable area.
  • Under future climate scenarios, the total potentially suitable area exhibited a marginal increase of less than 3%, while the highly suitable area experienced substantial reductions, with the greatest decline occurring under the RCP8.5 scenario.
  • Among the 31 Picea species, the total suitable area for 22 species indicated a decreasing trend under future climate scenarios, with the greatest decrease occurring under the RCP8.5 scenario.
  • Species with the largest total suitable areas were Picea obovata, Picea glauca, Picea mariana, and Picea abies, which all exceeded 1.00 x 10^6 km^2.
  • Under future climate scenarios, Picea abies showed an increasing trend, while the other three species exhibited decreasing trends.
  • The total suitable areas for Picea breweriana and Picea morrisonicola were the smallest (less than 1.00 x 10^6 km^2) and showed decreasing trends.
  • The main climate factors influencing Picea distribution were BIO17 and BIO01, with precipitation impacting the distribution more than temperature.

Statistics:

  • The total suitable area during the Last Interglacial period was 7.43 x 10^7 km^2.
  • The total suitable area during the Last Glacial Maximum period represents 76.31% of the current total suitable area.
  • The total suitable area during the Mid-Holocene period represents 96.11% of the current total suitable area.
  • Under future climate scenarios, the total potentially suitable area exhibited a marginal increase of less than 3%.
  • The highly suitable area declined by 11.65% and 13.60% under RCP6.0, and by 15.46% and 20.41% under RCP8.5, in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively.

Sources:

  • Wang, J., Yuan, Y., Xiao, W., Liu, Y., Jia, Z., Guo, Y., & Wang, Z. (2025). Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas and Their Trends For Picea Worldwide Under Climate Change. Forest Ecology and Management, 594.
  • Chinese Academy of Forestry. State Key Laboratory of Tree Genetics and Breeding.

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