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Global warming

Climate Change Significantly Influences Parasitic Species Distribution

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Researchers at the Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology in Poland have conducted a study on the impact of climate change on the distribution of parasitic species, specifically Loranthus europaeus, a parasitic plant that affects European forestry. The study, supported by the Polish Minister of Science and Higher Education, analyzed the potential range expansion of L. europaeus under predicted climate change scenarios for 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. The research found that the most important variables for Europe's range were the range of the Quercus genus, isothermality, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter. Under the SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios, the study predicts significant range expansions into northern and eastern Europe.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study used MaxEnt modeling based on current occurrence data of L. europaeus and the main host plant genus oak Quercus to assess the impact of predicted climate change.
  • The model demonstrated high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.92).
  • Under the SSP126 scenario, the study predicts a 43.5% increase in L. europaeus range expansion into northern Europe by 2041-2060.
  • Under the SSP245 scenario, the study predicts a 53.9% increase in L. europaeus range expansion into northern Europe by 2041-2060.
  • The study projects further range expansions up to 65.8% in northern Europe and contractions up to 29.8% in southern regions, including Turkey and Greece, by 2061-2080.
  • The study highlights the influence of climate change on L. europaeus distribution and underscores the need for adaptive management strategies to mitigate potential ecological and economic impacts.
  • The research was funded by the Polish Minister of Science and Higher Education as part of the Strategy of the Poznan University.
  • The study's lead author is Marlena Baranowska, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology, and the research team includes Adrian Lukowski, Robert Korzeniewicz, Wojciech Kowalkowski, and Lukasz Dylewski.

Statistics:

  • 43.5% increase in L. europaeus range expansion into northern Europe by 2041-2060 under the SSP126 scenario.
  • 53.9% increase in L. europaeus range expansion into northern Europe by 2041-2060 under the SSP245 scenario.
  • 65.8% increase in L. europaeus range expansion into northern Europe by 2061-2080 under the predicted climate change scenario.
  • 29.8% contraction in L. europaeus range in southern regions, including Turkey and Greece, by 2061-2080 under the predicted climate change scenario.

Sources:

  • Predicting parasitic plants Loranthus Europaeus range shifts in response to climate change. Scientific Reports, 2025;15(1):18932.
  • Nature Portfolio, Heidelberger Platz 3, Berlin, 14197, Germany.
  • Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology, Wojska Polskiego 71A, 60-637, Poznan, Poland.
  • Marlena Baranowska, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology, Wojska Polskiego 71A, 60-637, Poznan, Poland.
  • Adrian Lukowski, Robert Korzeniewicz, Wojciech Kowalkowski, and Lukasz Dylewski, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology, Wojska Polskiego 71A, 60-637, Poznan, Poland.

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