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Agriculture

Climate Change Threatens Food Security in Asian Mega-Deltas

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Research by the International Rice Research Institute has identified Asian Mega-Deltas as highly susceptible to the consequences of climate change, including rising temperatures, sea-level rise, and water deficits. These regions are crucial food baskets and contribute significantly to global food security. The study, which focused on maize crop suitability mapping and yield assessment in the Ganges and Mekong Deltas, found that climate change will have a significant impact on maize production in these areas.

Key Takeaways:

  • Asian Mega-Deltas are critical food baskets and contribute significantly to global food security, but are highly susceptible to climate change.
  • The study focused on maize crop suitability mapping and yield assessment in the Ganges and Mekong Deltas, using historical climate reanalysis AgERA datasets and climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (CMIP6).
  • The model performed better in the Indian region of the Ganges Delta than in the Bangladeshi region, where yield underestimation was observed due to improved management practices and the model's inability to fully capture high-input management systems.
  • Maize crop suitability zones were delineated, providing critical insights for planning and policy design to support climate adaptation in vulnerable regions.
  • The study identified regional differences in model performance, with R2 values ranging from 0.07 to 0.94 in the Ganges Delta and 0.23 to 0.85 in the Mekong Delta.
  • Province-level yield estimates were validated against statistics reported by the governments of the respective countries, with model performance varying across regions.

Statistics:

  • R2 values ranged from 0.07 to 0.94 in the Ganges Delta and 0.23 to 0.85 in the Mekong Delta.
  • Mean Absolute Error (MAE) ranged from 0.67 t/ha (14.2%) to 1.56 t/ha (20.7%) in the Ganges Delta and 0.37 t/ha (12.8%) to 2.7 t/ha (27.2%) in the Mekong Delta.
  • Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ranged from 0.62 t/ha (14.6%) to 1.74 t/ha (23.1%) in the Ganges Delta and 0.45 t/ha (15.9%) to 1.76 t/ha (30.9%) in the Mekong Delta.

Sources:

  • "Maize Yield Suitability Mapping in Two Major Asian Mega-Deltas Using AgERA and CMIP6 Climate Projections in Crop Modeling." Agronomy, 2025,15(4):878. (Agronomy - http://www.mdpi.com/journal/agronomy).
  • International Rice Research Institute. "Asian Mega-Deltas: Vulnerable to Climate Change." VerticalNews, May 15, 2025.

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